St. Truiden
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
St. Truiden
4th · 21 pts · 13 played
LWDLW
1–0Full time
Standard Liege
11th · 17 pts · 13 played
LLWLW
St. Truiden44.9%fair odds 2.23
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.73
Standard Liege28.3%fair odds 3.53
Expected goals1.51 – 1.15total 2.67
Likeliest score1–112.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Standard Liege
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| St. Truiden ↓ · Standard Liege → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are St. Truiden goals, columns Standard Liege goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%7.83
- 1–09.9%10.12
- 2–19.2%10.90
- 2–08.0%12.56
- 0–07.6%13.17
- 0–17.4%13.57
- 1–27.0%14.30
- 2–25.3%18.90
- 3–14.6%21.60
- 0–24.6%21.65
Winning margin
9.0%
St. Truiden by 3+
fair 11.07
13.7%
St. Truiden by 2
fair 7.29
22.1%
St. Truiden by 1
fair 4.52
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.73
16.7%
Standard Liege by 1
fair 5.98
8.0%
Standard Liege by 2
fair 12.55
3.6%
Standard Liege by 3+
fair 27.72
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
St. Truiden goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Standard Liege goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden win | 44.9% | 44.4% | +0.5 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 26.7% | +0.1 pp |
| Standard Liege win | 28.3% | 28.9% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.8% | 50.5% | -0.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.0% | 54.7% | -0.7 pp |
| Expected goals St. Truiden | 1.51 | 1.52 | -0.00 |
| Expected goals Standard Liege | 1.15 | 1.18 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- St. Truiden win44.9%2.23
- Draw26.8%3.73
- Standard Liege win28.3%3.53
- Double chance St. Truiden or draw71.7%1.39
- Double chance St. Truiden or Standard Liege73.2%1.37
- Double chance Standard Liege or draw55.1%1.82
- Draw no bet St. Truiden61.4%1.63
- Draw no bet Standard Liege38.6%2.59
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.2%1.33
- Over 2.549.8%2.01
- Over 3.527.8%3.59
- Over 4.513.2%7.57
- Under 1.524.8%4.02
- Under 2.550.2%1.99
- Under 3.572.2%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes54.0%1.85
- No46.0%2.17
- Yes and over 2.541.2%2.43
- St. Truiden win and yes20.9%4.78
- Draw and yes19.2%5.21
- Standard Liege win and yes13.9%7.21
Team goals
- St. Truiden over 0.578.0%1.28
- St. Truiden over 1.544.7%2.24
- St. Truiden over 2.519.4%5.14
- Standard Liege over 0.568.4%1.46
- Standard Liege over 1.532.0%3.12
- Standard Liege over 2.511.0%9.05
- St. Truiden clean sheet31.6%3.17
- Standard Liege clean sheet22.0%4.54
- St. Truiden win to nil24.0%4.17
- Standard Liege win to nil14.4%6.93
Handicap
- St. Truiden −1.522.8%4.39
- St. Truiden −2.59.0%11.07
- Standard Liege +1.577.2%1.29
- Standard Liege +2.591.0%1.10
- Standard Liege −1.511.6%8.64
- St. Truiden +1.588.4%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored109
Favourite won47.7%
Avg chance given to result38.6%
1X2 Brier0.606
Over 2.5 called right52.3%
BTTS called right51.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 38.3% | 30.0% |
| 40–50% | 57 | 45.1% | 38.6% |
| 50–60% | 21 | 55.1% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 65.2% | 88.9% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 75.1% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 71 of 109 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6052 | 0.5958 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.9% | 39.9% |
| Favourite won | 47.9% | 50.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 71 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Dender 2–2 Zulte Waregem35·28·37
- ✓RAAL La Louvière 2–1 Cercle Brugge43·28·30
- ✓St. Truiden 1–0 Antwerp38·27·34
- ✗OH Leuven 4–0 Gent27·26·46
- ✓KVC Westerlo 0–1 Genk34·27·39
- ✓Anderlecht 3–1 KV Mechelen52·25·23
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 109 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.