Stade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Stade Brestois 29 were slight favourites.
Stade Brestois 29 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Stade Brestois 29. Stade Brestois 29 were without B. Chardonnet and G. Versini. Stade Brestois 29 had 20.2 days of rest, Angers 21 and had to travel 310 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel310 kmRest days20.2 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Stade Brestois 2954%
Draw23%
Angers23%
Stade Brestois 2952%
Draw24%
Angers24%
Stade Brestois 2955%
Draw23%
Angers22%
Stade Brestois 2946%
Draw24%
Angers29%
Stade Brestois 2954%
Draw22%
Angers23%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brest)
13°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 78%
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 100
Team strength
Stade Brestois 29
Angers
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
47
AttackIn forecast
22
36
DefenceIn forecast
12
30
Form indexContext
37
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAngers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Stade Brestois 29Angers
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-1.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.62
80%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
18.60
ShotsContext
14.60
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
32%
On target shareContext
21%
12.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
60%
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.40
Shots allowedContext
16.20
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
2.60
BlocksContext
3.80
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.20
75%
Save rateContext
90%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
401
PassesContext
424
323
Accurate passesContext
356
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.95
14.80
FoulsContext
10.40
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
70%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.90
ShotsContext
11.60
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
31%
On target shareContext
26%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
63%
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.57
13.70
Shots allowedContext
16.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.60
3.70
BlocksContext
3.20
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.30
63%
Save rateContext
80%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
401
PassesContext
377
327
Accurate passesContext
313
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.80
FoulsContext
10.00
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Stade Brestois 29
DDWLL
Rest20.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 30 · 5 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
Angers
LWLDW
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel310 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 37 · 7 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Stade Brestois 29 |
Angers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 21Ligue 1 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 310 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
1E. Selvik(G)
2B. Locko
4G. Lloris
29L. Tousart
70K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
9P. Mboup
23K. Doumbia
17M. Baldé
19L. Ajorque
Angers
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
17Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
20Marius Louer
8B. van den Boomen
93H. Belkebla
14Y. Belkhdim
10M. Sbaï
9P. Peter
18J. Allevinah
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Stade Brestois 29
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −15.9% · Defence line −12.9% of weighted minutes
- DEF B. Chardonnet Starter 6.89 Def −10.0%
- ATT G. Versini Starter 6.41 Att −14.4%
- DEF Raphael Marc Le Guen Rotation 6.57 Def −2.1%
- MID M. Diambou Rotation 6.90 Att −1.5% Def −0.8%
Angers
Attack line −1.6% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
- ATT U. Simbakoli Rotation 6.37 Att −1.6%
Total impact vs full squads
- Stade Brestois 29-1.3 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Angers+1.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Stade Brestois 29 · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Angers · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Stade Brestois 29 | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 A |
| LE Havre | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Stade Brestois 29 wins2 draws2 Angers wins
Goals per game1.63 – 0.75
Over 2.525%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets38% · 25%
- 17 May 2026Stade Brestois 291–1Angers
- 28 Sep 2025Angers0–2Stade Brestois 29
- 9 Mar 2025Stade Brestois 292–0Angers
- 5 Jan 2025Angers2–0Stade Brestois 29
- 29 Jan 2023Stade Brestois 294–0Angers
- 21 Aug 2022Angers1–3Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Stade Brestois 29 | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.20 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.40 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Stade Brestois 29 | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 7.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 6.20 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 13.80 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.60 | 3.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 6.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 11.44 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.80 | 3.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 100 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.11league 3.13
Red cards0.22league 0.15
Cards 5+22%league 26%
Fouls20.3league 24.1
Penalties0.36league 0.28
Home wins49%league 43%
Stade Brestois 296 with this referee
Record3-0-3
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W11 Jan 25H · Lyon2–11
- L5 Nov 23A · Monaco0–24
- W14 May 23H · Auxerre1–00
- L16 Apr 22A · Saint Etienne1–22
- W21 Nov 21H · Lens4–01
Angers6 with this referee
Record0-1-5
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- L3 May 26A · Auxerre1–34
- L29 Sep 24H · Reims1–30
- L21 Apr 23H · Paris Saint Germain1–20
- D2 Apr 23H · Nice1–11
- L11 Jan 23A · Paris Saint Germain0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Stade Brestois 295 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Angers5 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
3
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
1
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
