Stade Brestois 29
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Stade Brestois 2953.4%fair odds 1.87
Draw24.0%fair odds 4.17
Angers22.6%fair odds 4.42
Expected goals1.84 – 1.13total 2.96
Likeliest score1–111.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Angers
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Stade Brestois 29 ↓ · Angers → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Stade Brestois 29 goals, columns Angers goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%8.89
- 2–19.8%10.19
- 1–08.9%11.21
- 2–08.7%11.48
- 1–26.0%16.61
- 3–16.0%16.64
- 0–05.7%17.44
- 2–25.5%18.09
- 3–05.3%18.74
- 0–15.3%19.04
Winning margin
14.1%
Stade Brestois 29 by 3+
fair 7.07
16.5%
Stade Brestois 29 by 2
fair 6.06
22.8%
Stade Brestois 29 by 1
fair 4.39
24.0%
Draw
fair 4.17
13.7%
Angers by 1
fair 7.28
6.2%
Angers by 2
fair 16.11
2.7%
Angers by 3+
fair 37.54
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Stade Brestois 29 goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Angers goals
32%0
37%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 53.4% | 53.9% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 24.0% | 23.6% | +0.4 pp |
| Angers win | 22.6% | 22.5% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 58.3% | -1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.4% | 58.4% | -1.0 pp |
| Expected goals Stade Brestois 29 | 1.84 | 1.88 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Angers | 1.13 | 1.15 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Stade Brestois 29 win53.4%1.87
- Draw24.0%4.17
- Angers win22.6%4.42
- Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or draw77.4%1.29
- Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or Angers76.0%1.32
- Double chance Angers or draw46.6%2.15
- Draw no bet Stade Brestois 2970.3%1.42
- Draw no bet Angers29.7%3.36
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.1%1.25
- Over 2.556.8%1.76
- Over 3.534.4%2.90
- Over 4.517.9%5.60
- Under 1.519.9%5.02
- Under 2.543.2%2.32
- Under 3.565.6%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes57.4%1.74
- No42.6%2.35
- Yes and over 2.546.1%2.17
- Stade Brestois 29 win and yes26.7%3.74
- Draw and yes18.2%5.49
- Angers win and yes12.4%8.05
Team goals
- Stade Brestois 29 over 0.584.1%1.19
- Stade Brestois 29 over 1.554.8%1.82
- Stade Brestois 29 over 2.527.9%3.58
- Angers over 0.567.6%1.48
- Angers over 1.531.1%3.22
- Angers over 2.510.5%9.53
- Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet32.4%3.08
- Angers clean sheet15.9%6.28
- Stade Brestois 29 win to nil26.7%3.75
- Angers win to nil10.2%9.80
Handicap
- Stade Brestois 29 −1.530.6%3.26
- Stade Brestois 29 −2.514.1%7.07
- Angers +1.569.4%1.44
- Angers +2.585.9%1.16
- Angers −1.58.9%11.27
- Stade Brestois 29 +1.591.1%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored47
Favourite won55.3%
Avg chance given to result39.0%
1X2 Brier0.620
Over 2.5 called right61.7%
BTTS called right59.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.2% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 23 | 45.2% | 65.2% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 55.4% | 33.3% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 65.9% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.9% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 38 of 47 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6267 | 0.6167 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.9% | 39.0% |
| Favourite won | 55.3% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 38 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 2 of 47 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.