Ligue 1 Gameweek 25 Sun, Mar 8 · 16:15 Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest
Stade Brestois 29 9th · 33 pts · 24 played
2–0Full time
LE Havre 13th · 26 pts · 24 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Stade Brestois 29 were slight favourites.

Stade Brestois 29 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Stade Brestois 29. Stade Brestois 29 had 7 days of rest, LE Havre 7.8 and had to travel 357 km.

Away travel357 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Stade Brestois 2957%
Draw25%
LE Havre19%
Expected goals 1.71 – 0.88
Stade Brestois 2957%
Draw24%
LE Havre19%
Expected goals 1.83 – 0.98
Stade Brestois 2956%
Draw25%
LE Havre19%
Expected goals 1.69 – 0.87
Stade Brestois 2949%
Draw27%
LE Havre24%
Expected goals 1.53 – 0.99
Stade Brestois 2958%
Draw24%
LE Havre18%
Expected goals 1.80 – 0.91
Over 2.5 48% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brest)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien
  • Cards per match 4.4
  • Penalties per match 0.41
  • Matches 119

Team strength

Stade Brestois 29LE Havre
42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 20
47 AttackIn forecast 20
36 DefenceIn forecast 22
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—
Defense risk—

LE Havre

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Stade Brestois 29LE Havre
1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83
1.42 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.03
1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44
+0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.20
71% Scored inContext 54%
33% Clean sheetsContext 25%
11.29 ShotsContext 10.21
3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.64
33% On target shareContext 33%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.00
63% Box shareContext 56%
12% ConversionContext 8%
1.67 OffsidesContext 2.05
12.92 Shots allowedContext 12.21
4.52 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.13
3.91 BlocksContext 3.91
3.09 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83
68% Save rateContext 68%
42% PossessionIn forecast 46%
364 PassesContext 372
286 Accurate passesContext 302
79% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.82
13.04 FoulsContext 12.83
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50
1.71 Yellow cardsContext 1.88
0.17 Red cardsContext 0.08
This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games
1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.04 xGVia Att/Def 0.88
1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70
+0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.18
90% Scored inContext 40%
50% Clean sheetsContext 20%
10.20 ShotsContext 8.70
3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50
35% On target shareContext 32%
5.70 Shots in the boxContext 5.00
57% Box shareContext 52%
13% ConversionContext 8%
1.80 OffsidesContext 2.00
14.00 Shots allowedContext 14.40
4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
4.60 BlocksContext 4.50
3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
76% Save rateContext 77%
39% PossessionIn forecast 46%
334 PassesContext 360
254 Accurate passesContext 287
76% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.90
14.00 FoulsContext 11.90
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.30 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Stade Brestois 29
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,565 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
LE Havre
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel357 km563 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Stade Brestois 29 LE Havre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Mar7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km357 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,565 km563 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 30 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one6.27

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
30G. Coudert(G)
2B. Locko 4M. Diaz 5B. Chardonnet 77K. Lala
8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard
7É. Dina Ebimbe 23K. Doumbia 10R. Del Castillo
19L. Ajorque
+2 more reported missing outside this XI
LE Havre Confirmed XI
4-3-3
99M. Diaw(G)
18Y. Zouaoui 4G. Lloris 15A. Seko 93A. Sangante
14R. Ndiaye 19L. Gourna-Douath 26S. Ebonog
17S. Boufal 33K. Quetant 45I. Soumaré
+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Stade Brestois 29 Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
LE Havre Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Stade Brestois 29+0.4 pp
  • Draw-0.3 pp
  • LE Havre-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Stade Brestois 29 · Home 1.75points per game · 12 home games
W-D-L
6-3-3
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.08
LE Havre · Away 0.55points per game · 11 away games
W-D-L
1-3-7
Scored
0.45
Conceded
1.64

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

OpponentStade Brestois 29LE Havre
Metz W 1–0 AW 3–2 H D 0–0 A
Marseille W 2–0 HL 0–3 A L 2–6 A
Lille D 1–1 AD 3–3 H L 0–1 H
Lorient W 2–0 HD 3–3 A D 1–1 H
Nice D 2–2 AW 4–1 H W 3–1 H
Toulouse L 0–2 HL 0–2 A W 2–1 HD 0–0 A
Lyon L 1–2 AD 0–0 H L 0–1 A
Auxerre W 2–0 H W 1–0 A
Rennes L 1–3 A D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
Monaco W 1–0 H D 0–0 HL 1–3 A
Strasbourg W 2–1 A W 2–1 HL 0–1 A
Paris Saint Germain L 0–3 H L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Nantes D 0–0 H L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
Angers W 2–0 A W 2–1 H
Paris FC L 1–2 H D 0–0 H
Lens L 1–3 A L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Points33 of 69 · 1.43 per game23 of 69 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

4 Stade Brestois 29 wins0 draws1 LE Havre wins
Goals per game1.20 – 0.40 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets60% · 20%
  • 29 Oct 2025LE Havre1–0Stade Brestois 29
  • 26 Jan 2025LE Havre0–1Stade Brestois 29
  • 6 Oct 2024Stade Brestois 292–0LE Havre
  • 3 Mar 2024Stade Brestois 291–0LE Havre
  • 20 Aug 2023LE Havre1–2Stade Brestois 29

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Stade Brestois 29LE HavreForecast
Scored per game 1.330.83
Conceded per game 1.421.25
Match goals 2.752.08 2.59
Over 1.5 79%54%
Over 2.5 50%38% 48%
Over 3.5 29%17%
Both teams scored 46%46% 49%
Clean sheets 33%25%
Failed to score 29%46%
Games2424
Stade Brestois 29LE HavreForecast
Scored per game 1.300.70
Conceded per game 1.000.90
Match goals 2.301.60 2.59
Over 1.5 80%50%
Over 2.5 30%30% 48%
Over 3.5 20%0%
Both teams scored 40%40% 49%
Clean sheets 50%20%
Failed to score 10%60%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Stade Brestois 29LE HavreLeague
Corners
Corners won4.414.50
Corners conceded5.364.73
Match total9.779.239.15
Over 8.550% 11/2259% 13/22
Over 9.550% 11/2241% 9/22
Over 10.550% 11/2241% 9/22
Cards
Cards1.881.96
Opponent cards1.792.25
Match total3.674.214.01
Over 3.550% 12/2467% 16/24
Over 4.538% 9/2433% 8/24
Stade Brestois 29LE HavreLeague
Corners
Corners won4.114.80
Corners conceded5.895.30
Match total10.0010.109.15
Over 8.567% 6/980% 8/10
Over 9.567% 6/960% 6/10
Over 10.567% 6/960% 6/10
Cards
Cards2.102.10
Opponent cards2.402.00
Match total4.504.104.01
Over 3.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 4.560% 6/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 119 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.16league 3.71
Red cards0.22league 0.29
Cards 5+47%league 36%
Fouls24.4league 24.0
Penalties0.41league 0.38
Home wins53%league 49%
Stade Brestois 299 with this referee
Record3-2-4 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 3 Reds1
  • W20 Sep 25H · Nice4–11
  • L1 Feb 25H · Paris Saint Germain2–51
  • L6 Dec 24A · Lille1–31
  • L17 Aug 24H · Marseille1–54
  • W28 Apr 24A · Rennes5–41
LE Havre3 with this referee
Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W6 Apr 25A · Montpellier2–01
  • L10 May 24A · Nice0–10
  • D17 Sep 23A · Lyon0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Stade Brestois 2924 games · scored 32 · conceded 34
6 5 0-15
5 7 16-30
5 6 31-45
6 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
7 7 76-90
LE Havre24 games · scored 20 · conceded 30
1 4 0-15
3 3 16-30
3 8 31-45
4 3 46-60
4 5 61-75
5 7 76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
3 0-15
3 3 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 46-60
1 3 61-75
3 1 76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 5 31-45
2 2 46-60
1 61-75
1 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Paris Saint Germain Monaco 13 Nantes Angers 01 Auxerre Strasbourg 00 Toulouse Marseille 01 Lens Metz 30 Lille Lorient 11 Nice Rennes 04 Stade Brestois 29 LE Havre 20 Lyon Paris FC 11