Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice – 20 Sep 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 20 · 18:00 Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest

Stade Brestois 29 17th · 1 pts · 4 played DLLL

4–1Full time

Nice 8th · 6 pts · 4 played LWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Nice were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 36). Stade Brestois 29 had 6.1 days of rest, Nice 7.1 and had to travel 1,044 km.

Away travel1,044 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Stade Brestois 2939%

Draw27%

Nice34%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.27

Stade Brestois 2939%

Draw27%

Nice34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.29

Stade Brestois 2938%

Draw27%

Nice34%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.28

Stade Brestois 2932%

Draw27%

Nice41%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.43

Stade Brestois 2939%

Draw27%

Nice34%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.28

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brest)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 102

Team strength

Stade Brestois 29

Nice

36 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

47 AttackIn forecast 26

36 DefenceIn forecast 35

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Stade Brestois 29

Nice

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

-0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

75% Scored inContext 75%

0% Clean sheetsContext 25%

16.50 ShotsContext 13.00

4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75

26% On target shareContext 37%

10.75 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

69% Box shareContext 54%

8% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 4.00

13.00 Shots allowedContext 12.00

5.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

5.33 BlocksContext 2.50

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

57% Save rateContext 75%

45% PossessionIn forecast 57%

365 PassesContext 466

284 Accurate passesContext 402

78% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.97

10.75 FoulsContext 13.50

10.75 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.25 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

80% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.50 ShotsContext 11.60

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

31% On target shareContext 33%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

71% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.00

12.40 Shots allowedContext 14.50

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

3.67 BlocksContext 4.40

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

51% Save rateContext 77%

47% PossessionIn forecast 49%

406 PassesContext 416

331 Accurate passesContext 350

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.96

11.80 FoulsContext 12.70

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Stade Brestois 29

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nice

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,044 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Stade Brestois 29	Nice
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Sep	7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,044 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	4.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30G. Coudert(G)

2B. Locko 4M. Diaz 5B. Chardonnet 77K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard

99P. Mboup 23K. Doumbia 10R. Del Castillo

19L. Ajorque

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Nice Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

80Y. Diouf(G)

26M. Bard 28A. Bah 37Kojo Peprah Oppong

47Tiago Gouveia 24C. Vanhoutte 6H. Boudaoui 92J. Clauss

7J. Boga 10S. Diop

9T. Moffi

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Stade Brestois 29 Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nice Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Stade Brestois 29+0.5 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Nice-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Stade Brestois 29 · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.50

Nice · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Stade Brestois 29	Nice
Toulouse	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Stade Brestois 29 wins2 draws5 Nice wins

Goals per game0.25 – 1.63 Over 2.538% Both scored13% Clean sheets38% · 75%

17 May 2025Nice6–0Stade Brestois 29
2 Nov 2024Stade Brestois 290–1Nice
4 Feb 2024Stade Brestois 290–0Nice
1 Oct 2023Nice0–0Stade Brestois 29
16 Apr 2023Stade Brestois 291–0Nice
6 Nov 2022Nice1–0Stade Brestois 29

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Stade Brestois 29	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	1.25
Conceded per game	2.50	1.25
Match goals	3.75	2.50	2.65
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	75%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	75%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	4	4

	Stade Brestois 29	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	1.25
Conceded per game	2.50	1.25
Match goals	3.75	2.50	2.65
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	75%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	75%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Stade Brestois 29	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	6.67
Corners conceded	5.00	4.00
Match total	9.50	10.67	10.18
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	100% 3/3
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	67% 2/3
Cards
Cards	1.75	2.50
Opponent cards	1.25	1.75
Match total	3.00	4.25	3.88
Over 3.5	25% 1/4	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	75% 3/4

	Stade Brestois 29	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	5.71
Corners conceded	5.40	4.00
Match total	9.90	9.71	10.18
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.90
Opponent cards	1.10	1.90
Match total	3.20	3.80	3.88
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 102 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.27league 3.47

Red cards0.21league 0.39

Cards 5+47%league 37%

Fouls24.8league 23.6

Penalties0.38league 0.55

Home wins53%league 66%

Stade Brestois 298 with this referee

Record2-2-4 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 3 Reds1

L1 Feb 25H · Paris Saint Germain2–51
L6 Dec 24A · Lille1–31
L17 Aug 24H · Marseille1–54
W28 Apr 24A · Rennes5–41
W16 Apr 23H · Nice1–01

Nice9 with this referee

Record5-2-2 Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 0

L9 Mar 25H · Lyon0–21
W24 Nov 24H · Strasbourg2–12
W10 May 24H · LE Havre1–02
W16 Mar 24A · Lens3–13
W10 Dec 23H · Reims2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.