Stade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Stade Brestois 29
12th · 9 pts · 8 played
LWWDD
0–3Full time
Paris Saint Germain
2nd · 17 pts · 8 played
WLWDD
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 39). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (67% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Stade Brestois 29 had 6 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 7.8 and had to travel 505 km.
Away travel505 kmRest days6 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Stade Brestois 2911%
Draw18%
Paris Saint Germain71%
Stade Brestois 2912%
Draw20%
Paris Saint Germain68%
Stade Brestois 2911%
Draw18%
Paris Saint Germain70%
Stade Brestois 298%
Draw15%
Paris Saint Germain78%
Stade Brestois 2912%
Draw19%
Paris Saint Germain69%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brest)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 88
Team strength
Stade Brestois 29Paris Saint Germain
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
90
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
47
AttackIn forecast
91
36
DefenceIn forecast
83
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Stade Brestois 29Paris Saint Germain
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
75%
Scored inContext
88%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.63
ShotsContext
16.25
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.13
31%
On target shareContext
38%
8.88
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
69%
Box shareContext
52%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.00
12.25
Shots allowedContext
9.25
5.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
4.14
BlocksContext
3.33
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
61%
Save rateContext
64%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
71%
371
PassesContext
759
292
Accurate passesContext
700
79%
Pass accuracyContext
92%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.03
12.50
FoulsContext
9.75
11.25
Fouls sufferedContext
10.13
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.75
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.93
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.00
ShotsContext
16.70
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.10
30%
On target shareContext
43%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
71%
Box shareContext
55%
12%
ConversionContext
17%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.60
12.80
Shots allowedContext
9.30
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
3.78
BlocksContext
3.25
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
57%
Save rateContext
67%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
387
PassesContext
724
308
Accurate passesContext
667
80%
Pass accuracyContext
92%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.05
11.80
FoulsContext
9.70
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Stade Brestois 29
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km219 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Paris Saint Germain
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel505 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Stade Brestois 29 |
Paris Saint Germain |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Oct | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 505 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 219 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
1R. Majecki(G)
2B. Locko
44S. Coulibaly
4M. Diaz
77K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
99P. Mboup
10R. Del Castillo
7É. Dina Ebimbe
19L. Ajorque
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
30L. Chevalier(G)
21L. Hernández
51W. Pacho
6I. Zabarnyi
2A. Hakimi
19K. Lee
17Vitinha
33W. Zaïre-Emery
29B. Barcola
24S. Mayulu
7K. Kvaratskhelia
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Stade Brestois 29
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Stade Brestois 29-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- Paris Saint Germain+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Stade Brestois 29 · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Paris Saint Germain · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Stade Brestois 29 | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Angers | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lens | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Toulouse | L 0–2 A | W 6–3 A |
| Lille | D 3–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game | 13 of 15 · 2.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
0 Stade Brestois 29 wins1 draws9 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.20
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 19 Feb 2025Paris Saint Germain7–0Stade Brestois 29
- 11 Feb 2025Stade Brestois 290–3Paris Saint Germain
- 1 Feb 2025Stade Brestois 292–5Paris Saint Germain
- 14 Sep 2024Paris Saint Germain3–1Stade Brestois 29
- 28 Jan 2024Paris Saint Germain2–2Stade Brestois 29
- 29 Oct 2023Stade Brestois 292–3Paris Saint Germain
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Stade Brestois 29 | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 25% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 38% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 25% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 38% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Stade Brestois 29 | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.43 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 8.43 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 0.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.26 | 2.25 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.55 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 2.80 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.31league 3.75
Red cards0.28league 0.32
Cards 5+52%league 36%
Fouls22.5league 24.5
Penalties0.35league 0.53
Home wins43%league 52%
Stade Brestois 2910 with this referee
Record5-1-4
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.8
Pens for · against3 · 3
- W7 Feb 25A · Nantes2–02
- L10 Nov 24A · Montpellier1–31
- L25 Aug 24A · Lens0–23
- W19 May 24A · Toulouse3–02
- W14 Jan 24H · Montpellier2–01
Paris Saint Germain10 with this referee
Record6-4-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.1
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W14 Sep 25H · Lens2–01
- D22 Apr 25A · Nantes1–10
- W18 Jan 25A · Lens2–12
- D6 Dec 24A · Auxerre0–01
- D21 Sep 24A · Reims1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Stade Brestois 298 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Paris Saint Germain8 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
5
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
5
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 28 · conceded 11
7
1
0-15
2
16-30
7
3
31-45
7
2
46-60
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
