Ligue 1 Gameweek 9 Sat, Oct 25 · 16:00 Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest
Stade Brestois 29 12th · 9 pts · 8 played
0–3Full time
Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 17 pts · 8 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Stade Brestois 2910.8%fair odds 9.23
Draw17.7%fair odds 5.64
Paris Saint Germain71.4%fair odds 1.40
Expected goals0.83 – 2.39total 3.22
Likeliest score0–211.4%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Stade Brestois 29

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Paris Saint Germain

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Stade Brestois 29 ↓ · Paris Saint Germain →0123456+
04.49.111.49.15.42.61.5
12.98.49.57.54.52.11.3
21.43.33.93.11.90.90.5
30.40.91.10.90.50.20.1
40.10.20.20.20.10.10.0
50.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
6+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Stade Brestois 29 goals, columns Paris Saint Germain goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 0–211.4%8.78
  • 1–29.5%10.55
  • 0–19.1%10.96
  • 0–39.1%11.04
  • 1–18.4%11.95
  • 1–37.5%13.26
  • 0–45.4%18.50
  • 1–44.5%22.23
  • 0–04.4%22.61
  • 2–23.9%25.34

Winning margin

0.8% Stade Brestois 29 by 3+ fair 132.11
2.6% Stade Brestois 29 by 2 fair 38.99
7.5% Stade Brestois 29 by 1 fair 13.31
17.7% Draw fair 5.64
22.3% Paris Saint Germain by 1 fair 4.48
21.1% Paris Saint Germain by 2 fair 4.74
28.0% Paris Saint Germain by 3+ fair 3.57

Goal distribution

Total goals

4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+

Stade Brestois 29 goals

44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+

Paris Saint Germain goals

9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
22%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Stade Brestois 29 win 10.8% 11.7% -0.9 pp
Draw 17.7% 19.0% -1.2 pp
Paris Saint Germain win 71.4% 69.3% +2.1 pp
Over 2.5 62.4% 59.3% +3.1 pp
Both teams score 51.7% 50.6% +1.1 pp
Expected goals Stade Brestois 29 0.83 0.82 +0.01
Expected goals Paris Saint Germain 2.39 2.25 +0.13

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Stade Brestois 29 win10.8%9.23
  • Draw17.7%5.64
  • Paris Saint Germain win71.4%1.40
  • Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or draw28.6%3.50
  • Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or Paris Saint Germain82.3%1.22
  • Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw89.2%1.12
  • Draw no bet Stade Brestois 2913.2%7.59
  • Draw no bet Paris Saint Germain86.8%1.15

Goals

  • Over 0.595.6%1.05
  • Over 1.583.5%1.20
  • Over 2.562.4%1.60
  • Over 3.540.2%2.49
  • Over 4.522.3%4.49
  • Under 1.516.5%6.08
  • Under 2.537.6%2.66
  • Under 3.559.8%1.67

Both teams to score

  • Yes51.7%1.93
  • No48.3%2.07
  • Yes and over 2.543.4%2.31
  • Stade Brestois 29 win and yes6.1%16.50
  • Draw and yes13.3%7.52
  • Paris Saint Germain win and yes32.4%3.09

Team goals

  • Stade Brestois 29 over 0.556.5%1.77
  • Stade Brestois 29 over 1.520.3%4.93
  • Stade Brestois 29 over 2.55.2%19.16
  • Paris Saint Germain over 0.590.8%1.10
  • Paris Saint Germain over 1.568.9%1.45
  • Paris Saint Germain over 2.542.7%2.34
  • Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet9.2%10.87
  • Paris Saint Germain clean sheet43.5%2.30
  • Stade Brestois 29 win to nil4.8%20.94
  • Paris Saint Germain win to nil39.1%2.56

Handicap

  • Stade Brestois 29 −1.53.3%30.10
  • Stade Brestois 29 −2.50.8%132.11
  • Paris Saint Germain +1.596.7%1.03
  • Paris Saint Germain +2.599.2%1.01
  • Paris Saint Germain −1.549.1%2.04
  • Stade Brestois 29 +1.550.9%1.97

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored73 Favourite won56.2% Avg chance given to result43.8% 1X2 Brier0.544 Over 2.5 called right56.2% BTTS called right57.5%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%1138.1%45.5%
40–50%2444.3%45.8%
50–60%1654.0%43.8%
60–70%1365.2%76.9%
70–80%775.1%85.7%
80%+288.1%100.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 46 of 73 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.60640.5948
Avg chance given to result40.8%40.8%
Favourite won43.5%45.7%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 46 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Latest results

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 73 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.