Standard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Standard Liege
10th · 27 pts · 22 played
LWLLL
First leg0–1
2–0Full time
Anderlecht
4th · 36 pts · 22 played
WDLLD
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Standard Liege. Standard Liege had 8.7 days of rest, Anderlecht 6.8 and had to travel 89 km.
Away travel89 kmRest days8.7 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Standard Liege32%
Draw27%
Anderlecht41%
Standard Liege32%
Draw27%
Anderlecht41%
Standard Liege32%
Draw27%
Anderlecht41%
Standard Liege26%
Draw26%
Anderlecht49%
Standard Liege33%
Draw27%
Anderlecht41%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 48
Team strength
Standard LiegeAnderlecht
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
29
AttackIn forecast
37
29
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Standard LiegeAnderlecht
0.82
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.18
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
55%
Scored inContext
77%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
41%
9.73
ShotsContext
14.77
3.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.64
34%
On target shareContext
31%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.82
66%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.06
13.91
Shots allowedContext
11.55
4.59
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.73
3.95
BlocksContext
2.82
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.43
73%
Save rateContext
63%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
369
PassesContext
432
288
Accurate passesContext
351
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.05
FoulsContext
13.18
11.86
Fouls sufferedContext
11.41
1.95
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
50%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.30
ShotsContext
15.10
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
36%
On target shareContext
29%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
70%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.63
12.60
Shots allowedContext
11.90
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.40
BlocksContext
2.50
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
75%
Save rateContext
63%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
380
PassesContext
414
300
Accurate passesContext
335
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.30
FoulsContext
12.20
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Standard Liege
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km166 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Anderlecht
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel89 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Standard Liege |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 23 Jan | 6.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 89 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 166 km | 99 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
21L. Pirard(G)
24J. Homawoo
25I. Hautekiet
18H. Lawrence
3Gustav Mortensen
23M. Ilaimaharitra
20I. Karamoko
13M. Fossey
17R. Saïd
10D. Eckert Ayensa
80T. Teuma
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
93M. Diarra
55M. Kana
3L. Hey
54K. Sardella
13N. Saliba
74N. De Cat
19N. Angulo
11T. Hazard
91A. Bertaccini
14D. Sikan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Standard Liege · Home
1.09points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-5
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 1.45
Anderlecht · Away
1.20points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-4
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Standard Liege | Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| Gent | L 0–4 HL 0–4 A | L 2–4 AW 1–0 H |
| Charleroi | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Dender | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| OH Leuven | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | W 2–0 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Zulte Waregem | D 0–0 H | L 2–3 H |
| Antwerp | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 A | L 0–4 AW 5–2 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–3 A | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Genk | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 27 of 63 · 1.29 per game | 33 of 63 · 1.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Standard Liege wins1 draws1 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 5 Oct 2025Anderlecht1–0Standard Liege
- 10 Dec 2023Anderlecht2–2Standard Liege
- 22 Oct 2023Standard Liege3–2Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Standard Liege | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.82 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 1.18 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.55 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 41% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 32% | 45% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 41% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 23% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Standard Liege | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.70 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Standard Liege | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.09 | 6.32 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.36 | 4.18 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 10.50 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 11/22 | 82% 18/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 8/22 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 6/22 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.23 | 2.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.82 | 2.55 | |
| Match total | 4.05 | 5.19 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 14/22 | 73% 16/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 10/22 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Standard Liege | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 6.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 11.20 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 5.60 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.98league 3.81
Red cards0.13league 0.19
Cards 5+42%league 40%
Fouls22.6league 22.9
Penalties0.35league 0.28
Home wins48%league 40%
Standard Liege3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W31 Oct 25H · Charleroi3–12
- D27 Dec 23H · St. Truiden1–11
- W8 Oct 23H · Club Brugge KV2–14
Anderlecht8 with this referee
Record4-3-1
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D21 Dec 25A · Antwerp2–23
- W9 Nov 25H · Club Brugge KV1–05
- D20 Sep 25H · Antwerp0–03
- L16 Mar 24H · Kortrijk0–11
- W25 Feb 24A · Club Brugge KV2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Standard Liege22 games · scored 18 · conceded 29
4
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
6
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
7
76-90
Anderlecht22 games · scored 30 · conceded 26
6
4
0-15
4
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
6
4
46-60
7
1
61-75
5
9
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
4
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
