Standard Liege vs Dender – 2 Aug 2025

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Aug 2 · 17:15 Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Luik

Standard Liege 4th · 3 pts · 1 played W

1–1Full time

Dender 12th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Standard Liege were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Standard Liege had 6.9 days of rest, Dender 7.1 and had to travel 109 km.

Away travel109 kmRest days6.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Standard Liege46%

Draw27%

Dender27%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.14

Standard Liege46%

Draw26%

Dender27%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.15

Standard Liege46%

Draw26%

Dender27%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.14

Standard Liege39%

Draw27%

Dender34%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.28

Standard Liege46%

Draw26%

Dender27%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.15

Over 2.5 50% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Luik)

No weather data yet

RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 9

Team strength

Standard Liege

Dender

31 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

33 Current StrengthIn forecast 15

29 AttackIn forecast 15

29 DefenceIn forecast 15

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Standard Liege

Attack—

Defense risk—

Dender

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Standard Liege

Dender

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

80% Scored inContext —

30% Clean sheetsContext —

11.40 ShotsContext —

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

36% On target shareContext —

7.70 Shots in the boxContext —

69% Box shareContext —

14% ConversionContext —

2.38 OffsidesContext —

11.90 Shots allowedContext —

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

3.30 BlocksContext —

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext —

73% Save rateContext —

52% PossessionIn forecast —

454 PassesContext —

359 Accurate passesContext —

79% Pass accuracyContext —

7.06 Team ratingContext —

11.10 FoulsContext —

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext —

1.90 Yellow cardsContext —

0.00 Red cardsContext —

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 0 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Standard Liege

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km198 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Dender

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel109 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Standard Liege	Dender
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Jul	7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Jul
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	109 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	198 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	8	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Standard Liege Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Epolo(G)

22A. Calut 24J. Homawoo 29D. Dierckx 13M. Fossey

20I. Karamoko 23M. Ilaimaharitra

17R. Saïd 10D. Eckert Ayensa 7T. Mohr

9T. Henry

Dender Confirmed XI

3-4-3

34M. Verrips(G)

3J. Pupe 44L. De Fougerolles 5L. Marijnissen

88F. Ferraro 17N. Mbamba 24M. Viltard 22B. Fredrick

18N. Rôdes 11A. Scheidler 16R. Květ

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Standard Liege Absences are shown before kick-off

Dender Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Standard Liege+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Dender+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Standard Liege · Home No home games yet this season.

Dender · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Standard Liege	Dender	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	0.00	2.69
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	50%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	54%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Standard Liege	Dender	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	0.00	2.69
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	50%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	54%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Standard Liege	Dender	League
Corners
Corners won	1.00	3.00
Corners conceded	6.00	3.00
Match total	7.00	6.00	9.50
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	0.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	3.00	2.00	3.90
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Standard Liege	Dender	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	3.00
Corners conceded	5.10	3.00
Match total	9.80	6.00	9.50
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.90	0.00
Opponent cards	1.50	2.00
Match total	3.40	2.00	3.90
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/1

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 9 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.89league 3.80

Red cards0.11league 0.10

Cards 5+33%league 30%

Fouls25.1league 22.5

Penalties0.33league 0.40

Home wins44%league 50%

Standard Liege

No previous matches with this referee.

Dender

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.