Standard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Standard Liege
8th · 39 pts · 29 played
DWDWD
First leg2–0
0–0Full time
KVC Westerlo
9th · 38 pts · 29 played
WWDWL
Our take
Standard Liege were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Standard Liege. Standard Liege had 7.1 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 7.9 and had to travel 68 km.
Away travel68 kmRest days7.1 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Standard Liege49%
Draw28%
KVC Westerlo24%
Standard Liege46%
Draw26%
KVC Westerlo28%
Standard Liege49%
Draw28%
KVC Westerlo24%
Standard Liege42%
Draw29%
KVC Westerlo29%
Standard Liege49%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo24%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Put
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 26
Team strength
Standard LiegeKVC Westerlo
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
29
AttackIn forecast
42
29
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Standard LiegeKVC Westerlo
0.93
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
62%
Scored inContext
62%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
34%
9.48
ShotsContext
13.66
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.54
33%
On target shareContext
32%
6.61
Shots in the boxContext
9.43
67%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.53
14.14
Shots allowedContext
12.31
4.66
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
4.00
BlocksContext
4.04
3.61
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.61
76%
Save rateContext
66%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
363
PassesContext
377
280
Accurate passesContext
299
77%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.59
FoulsContext
11.17
11.72
Fouls sufferedContext
12.14
1.97
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.10
ShotsContext
10.90
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
29%
On target shareContext
38%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
69%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.70
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.00
BlocksContext
4.11
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
74%
Save rateContext
62%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
368
PassesContext
375
279
Accurate passesContext
291
76%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.40
FoulsContext
11.00
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Standard Liege
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km509 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KVC Westerlo
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel68 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Standard Liege |
KVC Westerlo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 68 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 509 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 138.9 | 139.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
24J. Homawoo
4D. Bates
25I. Hautekiet
3Gustav Mortensen
20I. Karamoko
94C. Nielsen
18H. Lawrence
17R. Saïd
80T. Teuma
59T. Nkada
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
4A. Lapage
33R. Neustädter
40E. Bayram
22B. Reynolds
46A. Piedfort
34D. Haspolat
77J. Alcócer
13I. Sakamoto
38Shunsuke Saito
90Nacho Ferri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Standard Liege · Home
1.21points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.29
KVC Westerlo · Away
1.21points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-5
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Standard Liege | KVC Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Genk | W 3–0 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 HD 5–5 A |
| Anderlecht | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | W 4–0 HL 2–5 A |
| Gent | L 0–4 HL 0–4 A | L 0–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Charleroi | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 0–4 HW 3–0 A |
| Dender | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| OH Leuven | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 36 of 84 · 1.29 per game | 38 of 84 · 1.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Standard Liege wins1 draws1 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 33%
- 21 Sep 2025KVC Westerlo0–2Standard Liege
- 16 Feb 2024KVC Westerlo2–1Standard Liege
- 22 Sep 2023Standard Liege0–0KVC Westerlo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Standard Liege | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.93 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 2.62 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 38% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 34% | 38% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 34% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 38% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Standard Liege | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.00 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Standard Liege | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 5.21 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.39 | 10.10 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 13/28 | 68% 19/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 10/28 | 57% 16/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 8/28 | 57% 16/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 1.72 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.58 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 18/29 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 13/29 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Standard Liege | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 10.33 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.90 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Put 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.84
Red cards0.19league 0.19
Cards 5+42%league 40%
Fouls24.0league 22.7
Penalties0.35league 0.32
Home wins31%league 41%
Standard Liege3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D3 Feb 24A · RWDM2–24
- L20 Jan 24H · Kortrijk0–10
- D22 Sep 23H · KVC Westerlo0–00
KVC Westerlo4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L17 Jan 26H · Cercle Brugge0–20
- D22 Nov 25H · Gent0–03
- W30 Jan 24H · Cercle Brugge4–23
- D22 Sep 23A · Standard Liege0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Standard Liege29 games · scored 27 · conceded 35
6
5
0-15
4
4
16-30
7
9
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
6
61-75
2
9
76-90
KVC Westerlo29 games · scored 36 · conceded 40
7
4
0-15
5
6
16-30
5
13
31-45
6
3
46-60
8
4
61-75
5
10
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
