Standard Liege
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Standard Liege
8th · 39 pts · 29 played
DWDWD
First leg2–0
0–0Full time
KVC Westerlo
9th · 38 pts · 29 played
WWDWL
Standard Liege48.6%fair odds 2.06
Draw27.7%fair odds 3.61
KVC Westerlo23.7%fair odds 4.22
Expected goals1.47 – 0.95total 2.42
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Standard Liege ↓ · KVC Westerlo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Standard Liege goals, columns KVC Westerlo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.65
- 1–012.4%8.05
- 2–09.6%10.39
- 0–09.5%10.48
- 2–19.1%10.95
- 0–17.8%12.86
- 1–25.9%16.98
- 3–04.7%21.19
- 3–14.5%22.33
- 2–24.3%23.08
Winning margin
9.7%
Standard Liege by 3+
fair 10.28
15.0%
Standard Liege by 2
fair 6.69
23.9%
Standard Liege by 1
fair 4.18
27.7%
Draw
fair 3.61
15.2%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 6.57
6.2%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 16.07
2.3%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 44.35
Goal distribution
Total goals
10%0
20%1
27%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Standard Liege goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
KVC Westerlo goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege win | 48.6% | 49.3% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 27.7% | 27.2% | +0.5 pp |
| KVC Westerlo win | 23.7% | 23.6% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 43.6% | 45.3% | -1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.9% | 49.1% | -1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Standard Liege | 1.47 | 1.52 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 0.95 | 0.97 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Standard Liege win48.6%2.06
- Draw27.7%3.61
- KVC Westerlo win23.7%4.22
- Double chance Standard Liege or draw76.3%1.31
- Double chance Standard Liege or KVC Westerlo72.3%1.38
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw51.4%1.95
- Draw no bet Standard Liege67.2%1.49
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo32.8%3.05
Goals
- Over 0.590.5%1.11
- Over 1.570.3%1.42
- Over 2.543.6%2.30
- Over 3.522.6%4.43
- Over 4.59.8%10.16
- Under 1.529.7%3.36
- Under 2.556.4%1.77
- Under 3.577.4%1.29
Both teams to score
- Yes47.9%2.09
- No52.1%1.92
- Yes and over 2.534.8%2.87
- Standard Liege win and yes19.5%5.14
- Draw and yes18.1%5.51
- KVC Westerlo win and yes10.3%9.73
Team goals
- Standard Liege over 0.577.0%1.30
- Standard Liege over 1.543.3%2.31
- Standard Liege over 2.518.4%5.44
- KVC Westerlo over 0.561.3%1.63
- KVC Westerlo over 1.524.6%4.07
- KVC Westerlo over 2.57.1%14.05
- Standard Liege clean sheet38.7%2.58
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet23.0%4.35
- Standard Liege win to nil29.2%3.43
- KVC Westerlo win to nil13.4%7.45
Handicap
- Standard Liege −1.524.7%4.05
- Standard Liege −2.59.7%10.28
- KVC Westerlo +1.575.3%1.33
- KVC Westerlo +2.590.3%1.11
- KVC Westerlo −1.58.5%11.79
- Standard Liege +1.591.5%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored232
Favourite won44.0%
Avg chance given to result37.5%
1X2 Brier0.630
Over 2.5 called right53.9%
BTTS called right50.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 43 | 38.1% | 32.6% |
| 40–50% | 105 | 44.8% | 36.2% |
| 50–60% | 57 | 54.5% | 56.1% |
| 60–70% | 23 | 64.6% | 69.6% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 171 of 232 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6427 | 0.6302 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.1% | 38.0% |
| Favourite won | 42.7% | 43.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 171 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Cercle Brugge 1–3 RAAL La Louvière46·28·27
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–0 Anderlecht34·27·40
- ✗Antwerp 1–1 Standard Liege41·29·30
- ✓Genk 1–0 St. Truiden50·25·25
- ✓KVC Westerlo 1–2 Club Brugge KV24·25·51
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Dender67·21·12
- ✗Charleroi 0–2 OH Leuven45·25·30
- ✓Gent 2–0 Zulte Waregem50·25·24
- ✓St. Truiden 2–1 Cercle Brugge54·25·21
- ✗Zulte Waregem 0–1 Standard Liege41·27·32
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 232 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.