Standard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Standard Liege
9th · 34 pts · 26 played
LWLDW
First leg2–0
1–1Full time
RAAL La Louvière
15th · 25 pts · 26 played
LDLDL
Our take
Standard Liege were slight favourites.
Standard Liege were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Standard Liege. Standard Liege had 5.3 days of rest, RAAL La Louvière 5.2 and had to travel 99 km.
Away travel99 kmRest days5.3 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Standard Liege48%
Draw29%
RAAL La Louvière23%
Standard Liege49%
Draw26%
RAAL La Louvière25%
Standard Liege48%
Draw29%
RAAL La Louvière23%
Standard Liege41%
Draw30%
RAAL La Louvière29%
Standard Liege49%
Draw28%
RAAL La Louvière24%
Over 2.5 40%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 25
Team strength
Standard LiegeRAAL La Louvière
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
29
AttackIn forecast
15
29
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRAAL La Louvière
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Standard LiegeRAAL La Louvière
0.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.81
1.27
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.15
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
58%
Scored inContext
58%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
9.46
ShotsContext
8.88
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.78
33%
On target shareContext
28%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
6.08
65%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.16
14.31
Shots allowedContext
11.92
4.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.64
3.92
BlocksContext
3.17
3.72
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
76%
Save rateContext
77%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
36%
353
PassesContext
266
272
Accurate passesContext
190
77%
Pass accuracyContext
71%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.69
FoulsContext
11.12
11.77
Fouls sufferedContext
11.65
1.96
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.70
ShotsContext
9.50
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
28%
On target shareContext
28%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
64%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.90
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.30
BlocksContext
3.22
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
77%
Save rateContext
72%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
320
PassesContext
297
233
Accurate passesContext
222
73%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.40
FoulsContext
9.80
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Standard Liege
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km74 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RAAL La Louvière
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel99 km84 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Standard Liege |
RAAL La Louvière |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 5.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 99 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 74 km | 84 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
21L. Pirard(G)
18H. Lawrence
4D. Bates
25I. Hautekiet
3Gustav Mortensen
23M. Ilaimaharitra
20I. Karamoko
7T. Mohr
17R. Saïd
10D. Eckert Ayensa
11A. Abid
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed XI
21M. Peano(G)
13M. Maisonneuve
99Y. Okou
4Wagane Faye
11J. Liongola
5T. Lutonda
15S. Lahssaini
19Darío Benavides
23J. Ito
7P. Fall
27N. Nsingi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
RAAL La Louvière
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Standard Liege · Home
1.23points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.31
RAAL La Louvière · Away
0.85points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-6
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.46
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Standard Liege | RAAL La Louvière |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | W 3–0 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Anderlecht | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Gent | L 0–4 HL 0–4 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Charleroi | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Dender | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| OH Leuven | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 HL 2–3 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Antwerp | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Points | 31 of 75 · 1.24 per game | 25 of 75 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Standard Liege wins0 draws0 RAAL La Louvière wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 26 Jul 2025RAAL La Louvière0–2Standard Liege
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Standard Liege | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.92 | 0.81 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.27 | 1.15 | |
| Match goals | 2.19 | 1.96 | 2.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 42% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 31% | 50% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 42% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Standard Liege | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Standard Liege | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.28 | 4.23 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.23 | |
| Match total | 9.72 | 8.46 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 13/25 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 10/25 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 8/25 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.19 | 1.96 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.85 | 1.54 | |
| Match total | 4.04 | 3.50 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 16/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 12/26 | 27% 7/26 | |
| Standard Liege | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 9.60 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.50 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.32league 3.87
Red cards0.12league 0.19
Cards 5+24%league 41%
Fouls22.8league 22.8
Penalties0.24league 0.31
Home wins36%league 40%
Standard Liege2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W28 Nov 25A · KV Mechelen1–01
- D2 Aug 25H · Dender1–12
RAAL La Louvière1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W16 Jan 26A · Club Brugge KV3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Standard Liege26 games · scored 24 · conceded 33
5
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
7
9
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
6
61-75
8
76-90
RAAL La Louvière26 games · scored 21 · conceded 30
2
4
0-15
5
4
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
8
10
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
