Standard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Standard Liege
10th · 30 pts · 24 played
LLLWL
First leg0–3
1–1Full time
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 52 pts · 24 played
DWDWW
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Union St. Gilloise. Standard Liege had 6.1 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 6.2 and had to travel 89 km.
Away travel89 kmRest days6.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Standard Liege21%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise52%
Standard Liege24%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise51%
Standard Liege21%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise52%
Standard Liege17%
Draw24%
Union St. Gilloise59%
Standard Liege22%
Draw26%
Union St. Gilloise52%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 45
Team strength
Standard LiegeUnion St. Gilloise
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
66
29
AttackIn forecast
62
29
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Standard LiegeUnion St. Gilloise
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.54
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.72
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
54%
Scored inContext
83%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.50
ShotsContext
14.71
3.26
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
33%
On target shareContext
37%
6.48
Shots in the boxContext
11.62
65%
Box shareContext
75%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
3.21
14.17
Shots allowedContext
8.42
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.05
3.88
BlocksContext
2.52
3.65
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.61
74%
Save rateContext
80%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
362
PassesContext
421
282
Accurate passesContext
341
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.02
10.96
FoulsContext
12.42
11.96
Fouls sufferedContext
9.38
1.96
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
50%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.50
ShotsContext
11.40
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
30%
On target shareContext
36%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
66%
Box shareContext
69%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
2.60
OffsidesContext
4.29
13.20
Shots allowedContext
9.40
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.38
3.00
BlocksContext
3.33
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
77%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
373
PassesContext
375
292
Accurate passesContext
293
78%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.95
11.20
FoulsContext
11.10
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Standard Liege
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km353 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union St. Gilloise
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel89 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Standard Liege |
Union St. Gilloise |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 89 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 353 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
21L. Pirard(G)
24J. Homawoo
25I. Hautekiet
18H. Lawrence
3Gustav Mortensen
23M. Ilaimaharitra
20I. Karamoko
13M. Fossey
17R. Saïd
10D. Eckert Ayensa
7T. Mohr
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
1V. Chambaere(G)
26R. Sykes
16C. Burgess
5K. Mac Allister
27L. Patris
6K. Van de Perre
8A. Zorgane
25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj
12P. David
7M. Fuseini
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Standard Liege · Home
1.25points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Union St. Gilloise · Away
1.50points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-2
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 0.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Standard Liege | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Anderlecht | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Gent | L 0–4 HL 0–4 A | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Charleroi | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Dender | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| OH Leuven | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 AW 5–0 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| KV Mechelen | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A |
| Antwerp | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Genk | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 30 of 69 · 1.30 per game | 49 of 69 · 2.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Standard Liege wins0 draws3 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game0.33 – 2.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 16 Aug 2025Union St. Gilloise3–0Standard Liege
- 25 Feb 2024Union St. Gilloise2–1Standard Liege
- 4 Aug 2023Standard Liege0–1Union St. Gilloise
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Standard Liege | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 2.21 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 29% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 42% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 46% | 17% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Standard Liege | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 10% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Standard Liege | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 3.77 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.36 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 12/23 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 9/23 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 7/23 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.21 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.04 | 4.62 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 15/24 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 11/24 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Standard Liege | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 3.38 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 8.26 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.10 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.20league 3.88
Red cards0.36league 0.19
Cards 5+67%league 41%
Fouls23.3league 22.8
Penalties0.18league 0.30
Home wins40%league 41%
Standard Liege3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D21 Nov 25H · Zulte Waregem0–03
- L31 Aug 25A · OH Leuven0–13
- W26 Jul 25A · RAAL La Louvière2–01
Union St. Gilloise4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D14 Dec 25A · Charleroi1–12
- D9 Nov 25A · KV Mechelen1–12
- W2 Mar 24A · OH Leuven2–03
- L16 Sep 23H · Genk0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Standard Liege24 games · scored 20 · conceded 32
4
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
5
9
31-45
6
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
7
76-90
Union St. Gilloise24 games · scored 40 · conceded 13
4
3
0-15
5
16-30
7
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
8
61-75
11
5
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 11 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
