Standard Liege
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Standard Liege
10th · 30 pts · 24 played
LLLWL
First leg0–3
1–1Full time
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 52 pts · 24 played
DWDWW
Standard Liege21.5%fair odds 4.66
Draw26.5%fair odds 3.77
Union St. Gilloise52.0%fair odds 1.92
Expected goals0.93 – 1.58total 2.50
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Union St. Gilloise
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Standard Liege ↓ · Union St. Gilloise → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Standard Liege goals, columns Union St. Gilloise goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.95
- 0–112.3%8.15
- 0–210.2%9.82
- 1–29.4%10.61
- 0–08.8%11.35
- 1–06.9%14.42
- 2–15.5%18.10
- 0–35.4%18.66
- 1–35.0%20.17
- 2–24.4%22.93
Winning margin
1.9%
Standard Liege by 3+
fair 51.61
5.5%
Standard Liege by 2
fair 18.02
14.0%
Standard Liege by 1
fair 7.15
26.5%
Draw
fair 3.77
24.3%
Union St. Gilloise by 1
fair 4.12
16.1%
Union St. Gilloise by 2
fair 6.19
11.6%
Union St. Gilloise by 3+
fair 8.65
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Standard Liege goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
Union St. Gilloise goals
21%0
33%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege win | 21.5% | 21.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.0% | +0.5 pp |
| Union St. Gilloise win | 52.0% | 52.3% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.7% | 47.7% | -2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.5% | 50.1% | -1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Standard Liege | 0.93 | 0.96 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Union St. Gilloise | 1.58 | 1.62 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Standard Liege win21.5%4.66
- Draw26.5%3.77
- Union St. Gilloise win52.0%1.92
- Double chance Standard Liege or draw48.0%2.08
- Double chance Standard Liege or Union St. Gilloise73.5%1.36
- Double chance Union St. Gilloise or draw78.5%1.27
- Draw no bet Standard Liege29.2%3.42
- Draw no bet Union St. Gilloise70.8%1.41
Goals
- Over 0.591.2%1.10
- Over 1.572.0%1.39
- Over 2.545.7%2.19
- Over 3.524.3%4.11
- Over 4.510.9%9.15
- Under 1.528.0%3.57
- Under 2.554.3%1.84
- Under 3.575.7%1.32
Both teams to score
- Yes48.5%2.06
- No51.5%1.94
- Yes and over 2.536.0%2.78
- Standard Liege win and yes9.6%10.36
- Draw and yes17.7%5.64
- Union St. Gilloise win and yes21.2%4.72
Team goals
- Standard Liege over 0.560.4%1.66
- Standard Liege over 1.523.7%4.22
- Standard Liege over 2.56.7%14.91
- Union St. Gilloise over 0.579.4%1.26
- Union St. Gilloise over 1.546.8%2.14
- Union St. Gilloise over 2.521.1%4.74
- Standard Liege clean sheet20.6%4.85
- Union St. Gilloise clean sheet39.6%2.52
- Standard Liege win to nil11.8%8.46
- Union St. Gilloise win to nil30.8%3.24
Handicap
- Standard Liege −1.57.5%13.36
- Standard Liege −2.51.9%51.61
- Union St. Gilloise +1.592.5%1.08
- Union St. Gilloise +2.598.1%1.02
- Union St. Gilloise −1.527.7%3.61
- Standard Liege +1.572.3%1.38
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored195
Favourite won43.1%
Avg chance given to result37.1%
1X2 Brier0.636
Over 2.5 called right50.8%
BTTS called right50.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38 | 38.0% | 34.2% |
| 40–50% | 92 | 44.8% | 35.9% |
| 50–60% | 43 | 54.5% | 51.2% |
| 60–70% | 18 | 64.7% | 77.8% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 157 of 195 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6432 | 0.6331 |
| Avg chance given to result | 36.9% | 37.8% |
| Favourite won | 42.0% | 42.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 157 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗KV Mechelen 2–3 Genk38·26·35
- ✗KV Mechelen 2–0 Antwerp36·26·37
- ✓Club Brugge KV 3–0 Standard Liege69·19·12
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–1 RAAL La Louvière65·22·12
- ✓Genk 2–0 Anderlecht44·26·30
- ✗Gent 1–3 OH Leuven56·25·19
- ✗Charleroi 3–4 Cercle Brugge59·24·17
- ✓Zulte Waregem 1–0 Dender43·27·30
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 195 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.