Strasbourg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Strasbourg49.4%fair odds 2.02
Draw24.4%fair odds 4.10
Lens26.2%fair odds 3.82
Expected goals1.78 – 1.24total 3.02
Likeliest score1–111.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lens
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Strasbourg ↓ · Lens → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Strasbourg goals, columns Lens goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%8.82
- 2–19.6%10.44
- 1–08.1%12.36
- 2–07.7%12.97
- 1–26.7%14.95
- 2–26.0%16.79
- 3–15.7%17.59
- 0–15.5%18.26
- 0–05.4%18.40
- 3–04.6%21.86
Winning margin
12.3%
Strasbourg by 3+
fair 8.14
15.2%
Strasbourg by 2
fair 6.57
21.9%
Strasbourg by 1
fair 4.56
24.4%
Draw
fair 4.10
15.1%
Lens by 1
fair 6.60
7.4%
Lens by 2
fair 13.48
3.6%
Lens by 3+
fair 27.86
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Strasbourg goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Lens goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg win | 49.4% | 49.1% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 24.4% | 24.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Lens win | 26.2% | 26.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 57.8% | +0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.7% | 59.4% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Strasbourg | 1.78 | 1.76 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Lens | 1.24 | 1.24 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Strasbourg win49.4%2.02
- Draw24.4%4.10
- Lens win26.2%3.82
- Double chance Strasbourg or draw73.8%1.35
- Double chance Strasbourg or Lens75.6%1.32
- Double chance Lens or draw50.6%1.98
- Draw no bet Strasbourg65.4%1.53
- Draw no bet Lens34.6%2.89
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.581.0%1.23
- Over 2.558.2%1.72
- Over 3.535.8%2.79
- Over 4.518.9%5.30
- Under 1.519.0%5.26
- Under 2.541.8%2.39
- Under 3.564.2%1.56
Both teams to score
- Yes59.7%1.67
- No40.3%2.48
- Yes and over 2.548.4%2.07
- Strasbourg win and yes26.0%3.84
- Draw and yes19.0%5.27
- Lens win and yes14.7%6.79
Team goals
- Strasbourg over 0.583.1%1.20
- Strasbourg over 1.553.1%1.88
- Strasbourg over 2.526.4%3.79
- Lens over 0.571.1%1.41
- Lens over 1.535.3%2.83
- Lens over 2.513.0%7.69
- Strasbourg clean sheet28.9%3.47
- Lens clean sheet16.9%5.93
- Strasbourg win to nil23.4%4.27
- Lens win to nil11.4%8.75
Handicap
- Strasbourg −1.527.5%3.64
- Strasbourg −2.512.3%8.14
- Lens +1.572.5%1.38
- Lens +2.587.7%1.14
- Lens −1.511.0%9.08
- Strasbourg +1.589.0%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored207
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result42.5%
1X2 Brier0.571
Over 2.5 called right53.6%
BTTS called right52.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 33 | 38.0% | 48.5% |
| 40–50% | 62 | 44.8% | 48.4% |
| 50–60% | 53 | 54.3% | 49.1% |
| 60–70% | 33 | 64.4% | 69.7% |
| 70–80% | 18 | 74.5% | 72.2% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 87.4% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 179 of 207 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5922 | 0.5837 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 41.3% |
| Favourite won | 52.0% | 53.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 179 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Strasbourg 3–1 Lyon39·26·34
- ✗Nice 3–3 Lorient43·28·29
- ✓Nantes 2–0 LE Havre39·28·33
- ✓Angers 0–1 Lille30·29·40
- ✓Auxerre 0–3 Rennes32·27·40
- ✓Paris Saint Germain 3–0 Metz94·4·1
- ✗Toulouse 1–1 Paris FC62·22·16
- ✗Lens 2–3 Monaco54·25·21
- ✓Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Marseille37·26·37
- ✓Lyon 2–0 Nice67·20·12
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 207 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.