Strasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Strasbourg were slight favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Strasbourg. Strasbourg had 5 days of rest, Lens 6.2 and had to travel 410 km.
Away travel410 kmRest days5 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Strasbourg49%
Draw24%
Lens26%
Strasbourg39%
Draw27%
Lens34%
Strasbourg48%
Draw25%
Lens27%
Strasbourg42%
Draw25%
Lens33%
Strasbourg49%
Draw25%
Lens26%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Strasbourg)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceClement Turpin
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 134
Team strength
Strasbourg
Lens
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
40
AttackIn forecast
63
37
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
StrasbourgLens
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.91
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.87
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
87%
Scored inContext
83%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
10.78
ShotsContext
13.70
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.96
40%
On target shareContext
36%
7.77
Shots in the boxContext
9.55
70%
Box shareContext
70%
16%
ConversionContext
14%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.82
10.87
Shots allowedContext
11.26
4.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.64
3.24
BlocksContext
3.64
2.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.81
69%
Save rateContext
75%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
500
PassesContext
442
441
Accurate passesContext
375
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.04
11.13
FoulsContext
13.43
12.43
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
1.87
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
90%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.10
ShotsContext
14.80
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
45%
On target shareContext
34%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.44
69%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.86
11.70
Shots allowedContext
8.80
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.25
BlocksContext
2.11
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
69%
Save rateContext
76%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
517
PassesContext
460
461
Accurate passesContext
393
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.04
9.40
FoulsContext
14.10
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Strasbourg
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,231 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lens
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel410 km358 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Strasbourg |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 410 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,231 km | 358 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
22G. Doué
2A. Omobamidele
6I. Doukouré
42A. Ouattara
32V. Barco
29S. El Mourabet
20B. Godo
19J. Enciso
7Diego Moreira
9J. Panichelli
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
25P. Ganiou
4N. Čelik
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
23S. Abdulhamid
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Strasbourg
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lens
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Strasbourg+1.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Lens-1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Strasbourg · Home
2.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-3
- Scored
- 1.82
- Conceded
- 0.73
Lens · Away
2.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-3
- Scored
- 1.91
- Conceded
- 1.09
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Strasbourg | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Marseille | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H |
| LE Havre | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–2 HD 3–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Lille | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Metz | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Nice | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Lorient | D 0–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Toulouse | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Rennes | L 1–4 A | W 3–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Auxerre | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Angers | W 5–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Paris FC | W 3–2 A | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Monaco | L 2–3 A | L 2–3 HW 4–1 A |
| Nantes | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 34 of 66 · 1.55 per game | 49 of 66 · 2.23 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Strasbourg wins2 draws4 Lens wins
Goals per game1.11 – 1.22
Over 2.544%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets33% · 22%
- 22 Nov 2025Lens1–0Strasbourg
- 16 Feb 2025Lens0–2Strasbourg
- 6 Oct 2024Strasbourg2–2Lens
- 10 Feb 2024Lens3–1Strasbourg
- 29 Sep 2023Strasbourg0–1Lens
- 7 Apr 2023Lens2–1Strasbourg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Strasbourg | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.87 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.78 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 65% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 48% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 17% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Strasbourg | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.10 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Strasbourg | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.62 | 5.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.24 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 7.86 | 9.59 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 9/21 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 24% 5/21 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 5/21 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 2.04 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.96 | 2.26 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.30 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 16/23 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 7/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Strasbourg | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 10.56 | 8.10 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Clement Turpin France · 134 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 3.68
Red cards0.23league 0.29
Cards 5+29%league 37%
Fouls23.1league 24.1
Penalties0.35league 0.41
Home wins40%league 49%
Strasbourg15 with this referee
Record5-7-3
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds3
- D3 Jan 26A · Nice1–12
- D17 Oct 25A · Paris Saint Germain3–31
- L10 May 25A · Angers1–22
- W6 Apr 25A · Reims1–03
- D23 Feb 25H · Stade Brestois 290–03
Lens6 with this referee
Record5-1-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W12 Jan 25A · LE Havre2–12
- W9 Nov 24H · Nantes3–22
- W2 Dec 23H · Lyon3–23
- W6 May 23H · Marseille2–15
- W1 Apr 23A · Rennes1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Strasbourg23 games · scored 39 · conceded 30
3
4
0-15
6
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
7
9
46-60
8
1
61-75
9
10
76-90
Lens23 games · scored 44 · conceded 20
5
4
0-15
5
3
16-30
9
4
31-45
9
1
46-60
4
5
61-75
12
3
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 22 · conceded 9
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
