Strasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 48). Strasbourg had 7.1 days of rest, Lille 2.9 and had to travel 400 km.
Away travel400 kmRest days7.1 · 2.9Matches / 14d3 · 3
Strasbourg38%
Draw26%
Lille36%
Strasbourg37%
Draw27%
Lille36%
Strasbourg37%
Draw27%
Lille36%
Strasbourg31%
Draw26%
Lille43%
Strasbourg38%
Draw27%
Lille35%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Strasbourg)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 109
Team strength
Strasbourg
Lille
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
40
AttackIn forecast
42
37
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
StrasbourgLille
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.09
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.18
1.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
100%
Scored inContext
73%
45%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
11.82
ShotsContext
16.64
4.82
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.09
41%
On target shareContext
31%
8.82
Shots in the boxContext
11.82
74%
Box shareContext
72%
17%
ConversionContext
13%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.33
10.91
Shots allowedContext
9.64
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.36
3.10
BlocksContext
2.50
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.18
67%
Save rateContext
65%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
505
PassesContext
490
444
Accurate passesContext
418
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.98
12.00
FoulsContext
12.82
13.09
Fouls sufferedContext
12.91
1.82
Yellow cardsContext
2.36
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
100%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.30
ShotsContext
15.70
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
42%
On target shareContext
33%
9.44
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
72%
Box shareContext
72%
18%
ConversionContext
10%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.43
12.60
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.11
BlocksContext
2.88
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
67%
Save rateContext
66%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
538
PassesContext
501
475
Accurate passesContext
425
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.90
FoulsContext
12.30
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Strasbourg
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,150 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Lille
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel400 km4,541 km in 14d
Schedule load39%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Strasbourg |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Moderate · 39 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 400 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,150 km | 4,541 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 3 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
3B. Chilwell
23M. Sarr
24L. Høgsberg
7Diego Moreira
42A. Ouattara
32V. Barco
22G. Doué
19J. Enciso
9J. Panichelli
10E. Emegha
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
12T. Meunier
21B. André
32A. Bouaddi
7M. Fernandez-Pardo
10H. Haraldsson
27Félix Correia
9O. Giroud
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Strasbourg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Strasbourg+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Lille-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Strasbourg · Home
2.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 2.20
- Conceded
- 0.40
Lille · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 2.40
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Strasbourg | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | D 3–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Angers | W 5–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Monaco | L 2–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Nantes | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Metz | W 1–0 A | W 6–1 H |
| Points | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game | 13 of 18 · 2.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Strasbourg wins1 draws5 Lille wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.75
Over 2.563%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 25 Jan 2025Strasbourg2–1Lille
- 21 Sep 2024Lille3–3Strasbourg
- 21 Apr 2024Lille1–0Strasbourg
- 20 Dec 2023Strasbourg2–1Lille
- 12 Feb 2023Lille2–0Strasbourg
- 14 Oct 2022Strasbourg0–3Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Strasbourg | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.09 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 1.18 | |
| Match goals | 3.45 | 3.27 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 73% | 45% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 45% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 45% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 45% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 27% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Strasbourg | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.70 | 2.70 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 30% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Strasbourg | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.36 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.27 | 3.82 | |
| Match total | 7.63 | 10.82 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 27% 3/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 18% 2/11 | 73% 8/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 2/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.09 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.73 | 2.09 | |
| Match total | 3.82 | 4.45 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 18% 2/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Strasbourg | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.44 | 7.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 6.88 | 11.40 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.50 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 109 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.08league 3.82
Red cards0.26league 0.30
Cards 5+47%league 38%
Fouls22.3league 24.3
Penalties0.31league 0.50
Home wins51%league 50%
Strasbourg7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- W21 Sep 25A · Paris FC3–24
- W12 May 24H · Metz2–12
- W18 Feb 23H · Angers2–13
- D11 Jan 23H · Lens2–21
- L6 Aug 22H · Monaco1–20
Lille11 with this referee
Record5-2-4
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.5
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds1
- L1 Mar 25A · Paris Saint Germain1–42
- W17 Jan 25H · Nice2–11
- L13 Sep 24A · Saint Etienne0–11
- L10 Feb 24A · Paris Saint Germain1–33
- W29 Apr 23H · Ajaccio3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Strasbourg11 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
5
61-75
7
7
76-90
Lille11 games · scored 23 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
12
2
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
2
0-15
5
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
