Strasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Strasbourg were clear favourites.
Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 17). Absences weigh more on Metz. Strasbourg had 14.8 days of rest, Metz 13.9 and had to travel 132 km.
Away travel132 kmRest days14.8 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Strasbourg68%
Draw20%
Metz13%
Strasbourg66%
Draw21%
Metz14%
Strasbourg66%
Draw20%
Metz13%
Strasbourg61%
Draw22%
Metz17%
Strasbourg67%
Draw20%
Metz13%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Strasbourg)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 93
Team strength
Strasbourg
Metz
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
40
AttackIn forecast
11
37
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMetz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
StrasbourgMetz
1.53
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
1.24
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.24
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
82%
Scored inContext
65%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
10.35
ShotsContext
8.59
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
39%
On target shareContext
35%
7.53
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
71%
Box shareContext
62%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
1.69
OffsidesContext
1.58
10.53
Shots allowedContext
14.41
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.71
3.33
BlocksContext
2.88
2.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
71%
Save rateContext
65%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
521
PassesContext
451
460
Accurate passesContext
389
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.41
FoulsContext
10.53
13.12
Fouls sufferedContext
11.41
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
1.41
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.90
ShotsContext
9.30
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
43%
On target shareContext
41%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.11
68%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.00
Shots allowedContext
14.40
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
4.17
BlocksContext
2.80
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
78%
Save rateContext
65%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
583
PassesContext
452
520
Accurate passesContext
390
89%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.75
8.90
FoulsContext
10.20
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Strasbourg
Rest14.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Metz
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel132 km1,434 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Strasbourg |
Metz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 3 Jan | 13.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 132 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,434 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
3B. Chilwell
6I. Doukouré
24L. Høgsberg
22G. Doué
29S. El Mourabet
32V. Barco
20B. Godo
19J. Enciso
7Diego Moreira
9J. Panichelli
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
97F. Ballo-Touré
15T. Yegbe
38S. Sané
2M. Colin
5J. Gbamin
20J. Deminguet
7G. Tsitaishvili
10G. Hein
11M. Mbaye
23I. Sané
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Strasbourg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Metz
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Strasbourg+1.4 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Metz-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Strasbourg · Home
2.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 0.50
Metz · Away
0.44points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-7
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 3.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Strasbourg | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Nice | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Lorient | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Toulouse | L 0–1 A | L 0–4 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 1–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Lens | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Lille | W 2–0 H | L 1–6 A |
| Rennes | L 1–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Auxerre | W 3–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Lyon | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | D 3–3 A | L 2–3 H |
| Angers | W 5–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Marseille | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Paris FC | W 3–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Monaco | L 2–3 A | L 2–5 A |
| Nantes | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 21 of 48 · 1.31 per game | 12 of 48 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
5 Strasbourg wins0 draws0 Metz wins
Goals per game1.80 – 0.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets80% · 0%
- 17 Aug 2025Metz0–1Strasbourg
- 12 May 2024Strasbourg2–1Metz
- 24 Sep 2023Metz0–1Strasbourg
- 9 Jan 2022Metz0–2Strasbourg
- 17 Sep 2021Strasbourg3–0Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Strasbourg | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.53 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.24 | 2.24 | |
| Match goals | 2.76 | 3.29 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 59% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 53% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 35% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Strasbourg | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.50 | 3.05 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Strasbourg | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.63 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.94 | 5.18 | |
| Match total | 7.57 | 9.18 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 31% 5/16 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 4/16 | 18% 3/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 4/16 | 18% 3/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.18 | 1.59 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.76 | 1.47 | |
| Match total | 3.94 | 3.06 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 11/17 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 5/17 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Strasbourg | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.10 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.70 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 93 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.29league 3.63
Red cards0.31league 0.34
Cards 5+52%league 35%
Fouls22.3league 24.1
Penalties0.37league 0.45
Home wins42%league 51%
Strasbourg10 with this referee
Record3-4-3
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L26 Sep 25H · Marseille1–22
- D12 Apr 25H · Nice2–21
- W16 Mar 24A · Nantes3–13
- D7 Dec 23A · Stade Brestois 291–10
- D12 Mar 23A · Marseille2–24
Metz6 with this referee
Record3-0-3
Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W26 Nov 23A · Lorient3–21
- W14 May 22H · Angers1–03
- L10 Apr 22A · Bordeaux1–32
- W16 Jan 22A · Reims1–04
- L24 Oct 21A · Lens1–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Strasbourg17 games · scored 26 · conceded 21
2
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
6
46-60
6
1
61-75
7
8
76-90
Metz17 games · scored 18 · conceded 38
3
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
8
13
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 13 · conceded 22
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
8
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
