Strasbourg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Strasbourg67.9%fair odds 1.47
Draw19.6%fair odds 5.11
Metz12.6%fair odds 7.95
Expected goals2.21 – 0.85total 3.05
Likeliest score2–011.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Metz
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Strasbourg ↓ · Metz → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Strasbourg goals, columns Metz goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.5%8.71
- 1–09.9%10.06
- 2–19.7%10.28
- 1–19.3%10.77
- 3–08.4%11.84
- 3–17.2%13.97
- 0–05.2%19.29
- 4–04.7%21.46
- 2–24.1%24.25
- 4–13.9%25.32
Winning margin
24.1%
Strasbourg by 3+
fair 4.15
20.5%
Strasbourg by 2
fair 4.87
23.2%
Strasbourg by 1
fair 4.31
19.6%
Draw
fair 5.11
8.6%
Metz by 1
fair 11.58
3.0%
Metz by 2
fair 33.00
0.9%
Metz by 3+
fair 108.50
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Strasbourg goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
18%4+
Metz goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg win | 67.9% | 67.1% | +0.7 pp |
| Draw | 19.6% | 20.0% | -0.4 pp |
| Metz win | 12.6% | 12.9% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 57.7% | +1.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.3% | 50.8% | +0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Strasbourg | 2.21 | 2.16 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Metz | 0.85 | 0.84 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Strasbourg win67.9%1.47
- Draw19.6%5.11
- Metz win12.6%7.95
- Double chance Strasbourg or draw87.4%1.14
- Double chance Strasbourg or Metz80.4%1.24
- Double chance Metz or draw32.1%3.11
- Draw no bet Strasbourg84.4%1.19
- Draw no bet Metz15.6%6.39
Goals
- Over 0.594.8%1.05
- Over 1.581.3%1.23
- Over 2.558.9%1.70
- Over 3.536.5%2.74
- Over 4.519.4%5.16
- Under 1.518.7%5.36
- Under 2.541.1%2.43
- Under 3.563.5%1.57
Both teams to score
- Yes51.3%1.95
- No48.7%2.05
- Yes and over 2.542.0%2.38
- Strasbourg win and yes30.2%3.31
- Draw and yes14.4%6.96
- Metz win and yes6.8%14.79
Team goals
- Strasbourg over 0.589.0%1.12
- Strasbourg over 1.564.7%1.55
- Strasbourg over 2.537.9%2.64
- Metz over 0.557.2%1.75
- Metz over 1.520.8%4.80
- Metz over 2.55.5%18.35
- Strasbourg clean sheet42.8%2.33
- Metz clean sheet11.0%9.08
- Strasbourg win to nil37.7%2.66
- Metz win to nil5.8%17.17
Handicap
- Strasbourg −1.544.6%2.24
- Strasbourg −2.524.1%4.15
- Metz +1.555.4%1.81
- Metz +2.575.9%1.32
- Metz −1.54.0%25.30
- Strasbourg +1.596.0%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored158
Favourite won56.3%
Avg chance given to result43.0%
1X2 Brier0.564
Over 2.5 called right52.5%
BTTS called right51.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 24 | 38.1% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 47 | 44.6% | 48.9% |
| 50–60% | 41 | 53.8% | 48.8% |
| 60–70% | 24 | 64.8% | 70.8% |
| 70–80% | 15 | 74.6% | 73.3% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 86.4% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 130 of 158 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5925 | 0.5835 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.6% | 41.5% |
| Favourite won | 51.5% | 52.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 130 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Angers 2–5 Marseille21·24·54
- ✓Toulouse 5–1 Nice49·26·25
- ✓Lens 1–0 Auxerre68·20·12
- ✓Paris Saint Germain 3–0 Lille72·17·10
- ✗Monaco 1–3 Lorient60·23·17
- ✓Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Paris FC94·5·2
- ✓LE Havre 2–1 Angers42·27·31
- ✓Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Auxerre55·25·20
- ✗Lorient 1–1 Metz51·25·23
- ✗Marseille 0–2 Nantes75·17·9
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 158 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.