Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain – 1 Feb 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 20 Sun, Feb 1 · 19:45 Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

Strasbourg 7th · 30 pts · 19 played LDDWW

1–2Full time

Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 45 pts · 19 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were slight favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Strasbourg. Strasbourg had 7 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 9 and had to travel 397 km.

Away travel397 kmRest days7 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Strasbourg19%

Draw21%

Paris Saint Germain59%

Expected goals 1.13 – 2.12

Strasbourg18%

Draw23%

Paris Saint Germain58%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.87

Strasbourg19%

Draw21%

Paris Saint Germain60%

Expected goals 1.13 – 2.12

Strasbourg14%

Draw19%

Paris Saint Germain67%

Expected goals 1.01 – 2.37

Strasbourg20%

Draw23%

Paris Saint Germain57%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.95

Over 2.5 63% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Strasbourg)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceEric Wattellier

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 90

Team strength

Strasbourg

Paris Saint Germain

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 88

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

40 AttackIn forecast 91

37 DefenceIn forecast 83

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Strasbourg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Strasbourg

Paris Saint Germain

1.68 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.16

1.21 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.79

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.78

+0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.59

84% Scored inContext 89%

37% Clean sheetsContext 53%

10.79 ShotsContext 16.84

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.58

39% On target shareContext 39%

7.74 Shots in the boxContext 9.74

71% Box shareContext 57%

16% ConversionContext 13%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.40

10.95 Shots allowedContext 8.21

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.31

3.29 BlocksContext 2.60

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57

70% Save rateContext 72%

53% PossessionIn forecast 69%

517 PassesContext 726

456 Accurate passesContext 665

88% Pass accuracyContext 92%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.03

11.53 FoulsContext 10.11

12.89 Fouls sufferedContext 8.37

1.89 Yellow cardsContext 1.05

0.16 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.74

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.40 ShotsContext 18.00

5.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.70

41% On target shareContext 37%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 11.40

69% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 12%

1.40 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.60 Shots allowedContext 8.30

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.71 BlocksContext 2.22

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

72% Save rateContext 66%

58% PossessionIn forecast 67%

578 PassesContext 665

518 Accurate passesContext 599

90% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.97 Team ratingContext 7.01

9.90 FoulsContext 9.30

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 0.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Strasbourg

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km800 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Paris Saint Germain

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel397 km296 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Strasbourg	Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Jan	9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	397 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	800 km	296 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Strasbourg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

39M. Penders(G)

3B. Chilwell 6I. Doukouré 23M. Sarr 22G. Doué

42A. Ouattara 29S. El Mourabet

20B. Godo 19J. Enciso 7Diego Moreira

9J. Panichelli

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

39M. Safonov(G)

25Nuno Mendes 51W. Pacho 5Marquinhos 2A. Hakimi

87João Neves 17Vitinha 33W. Zaïre-Emery

29B. Barcola 24S. Mayulu 49I. Mbaye

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Strasbourg Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Paris Saint Germain Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Strasbourg+0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Paris Saint Germain-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Strasbourg · Home 2.11points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 6-1-2
Scored: 1.78
Conceded: 0.56

Paris Saint Germain · Away 2.00points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 6-2-2
Scored: 1.90
Conceded: 1.10

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Strasbourg	Paris Saint Germain
Lille	W 4–1 AW 2–0 H	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A
Metz	W 2–1 HW 1–0 A	W 3–2 A
Nice	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Lorient	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 A
Toulouse	L 0–1 A	W 6–3 A
Stade Brestois 29	L 1–2 H	W 3–0 A
Lens	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 H
Rennes	L 1–4 A	W 5–0 H
Auxerre	W 3–0 H	W 1–0 AW 2–0 H
Lyon	L 1–2 A	W 3–2 A
Angers	W 5–0 H	W 1–0 H
Marseille	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 A
Paris FC	W 3–2 A	W 2–1 H
LE Havre	W 1–0 H	W 3–0 H
Monaco	L 2–3 A	L 0–1 A
Nantes	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
Points	29 of 54 · 1.61 per game	44 of 54 · 2.44 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

1 Strasbourg wins3 draws5 Paris Saint Germain wins

Goals per game1.67 – 2.56 Over 2.589% Both scored89% Clean sheets0% · 11%

17 Oct 2025Paris Saint Germain3–3Strasbourg
3 May 2025Strasbourg2–1Paris Saint Germain
19 Oct 2024Paris Saint Germain4–2Strasbourg
2 Feb 2024Strasbourg1–2Paris Saint Germain
21 Oct 2023Paris Saint Germain3–0Strasbourg
27 May 2023Strasbourg1–1Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Strasbourg	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	1.68	2.16
Conceded per game	1.21	0.79
Match goals	2.89	2.95	3.25
Over 1.5	68%	68%
Over 2.5	58%	47%	63%
Over 3.5	32%	26%
Both teams scored	53%	37%	60%
Clean sheets	37%	53%
Failed to score	16%	11%
Games	19	19

	Strasbourg	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	2.20
Conceded per game	1.10	0.70
Match goals	2.50	2.90	3.25
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	63%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	60%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Strasbourg	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	3.47	5.35
Corners conceded	4.18	3.24
Match total	7.65	8.59	9.16
Over 8.5	35% 6/17	47% 8/17
Over 9.5	24% 4/17	24% 4/17
Over 10.5	24% 4/17	12% 2/17
Cards
Cards	2.16	1.05
Opponent cards	1.84	1.68
Match total	4.00	2.73	3.98
Over 3.5	68% 13/19	21% 4/19
Over 4.5	32% 6/19	11% 2/19

	Strasbourg	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.80
Corners conceded	4.50	2.90
Match total	9.50	8.70	9.16
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	0.70
Opponent cards	2.00	1.80
Match total	3.80	2.50	3.98
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 90 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.14league 3.65

Red cards0.21league 0.31

Cards 5+22%league 36%

Fouls20.7league 24.3

Penalties0.36league 0.42

Home wins49%league 49%

Strasbourg9 with this referee

Record4-1-4 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds2

L26 Oct 25A · Lyon1–24
D19 Apr 25A · Monaco0–03
L2 Nov 24A · Saint Etienne0–21
W25 Aug 24H · Rennes3–12
L19 May 24A · Lyon1–21

Paris Saint Germain9 with this referee

Record9-0-0 Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.3 Pens for · against5 · 2

W30 Aug 25A · Toulouse6–30
W23 Feb 25A · Lyon3–21
W3 Sep 23A · Lyon4–12
W21 Apr 23A · Angers2–10
W11 Jan 23H · Angers2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.