Strasbourg
Attack−35%
Defense risk+103%
Strasbourg
12th · 7 pts · 6 played
WWDLL
1–3Full time
Paris Saint Germain
6th · 11 pts · 6 played
DLWWW
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Paris Saint Germain. Strasbourg were without I. Doukouré and M. Godo. Strasbourg had 6.1 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 2.8 and had to travel 397 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel397 kmRest days6.1 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Strasbourg11%
Draw15%
Paris Saint Germain75%
Strasbourg15%
Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain63%
Strasbourg11%
Draw15%
Paris Saint Germain74%
Strasbourg7%
Draw11%
Paris Saint Germain82%
Strasbourg11%
Draw16%
Paris Saint Germain73%
Over 2.5 77%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–2
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Strasbourg)
14°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 5 km/h
- Humidity 76%
Referee · FranceWilly Delajod
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 118
Team strength
StrasbourgParis Saint Germain
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
89
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
40
AttackIn forecast
91
37
DefenceIn forecast
83
43
Form indexContext
94
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis Saint Germain
Attack+7%
Defense risk−3%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
StrasbourgParis Saint Germain
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
2.64
2.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+1.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.81
83%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
11.67
ShotsContext
21.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.17
39%
On target shareContext
34%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
11.33
60%
Box shareContext
52%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.20
16.17
Shots allowedContext
10.00
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
5.20
BlocksContext
2.40
4.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
69%
Save rateContext
81%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
467
PassesContext
714
408
Accurate passesContext
641
87%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.71
Team ratingContext
7.02
11.00
FoulsContext
5.67
8.83
Fouls sufferedContext
11.17
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.17
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
2.03
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
80%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.00
ShotsContext
20.50
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.30
40%
On target shareContext
36%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
11.60
63%
Box shareContext
55%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
3.14
17.10
Shots allowedContext
11.90
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
5.22
BlocksContext
3.44
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.14
74%
Save rateContext
78%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
66%
472
PassesContext
703
410
Accurate passesContext
631
87%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.06
10.30
FoulsContext
7.30
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Strasbourg
WWDLL
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,088 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
Paris Saint Germain
WWWWW
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel397 km1,211 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +4.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Strasbourg |
Paris Saint Germain |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 14 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 397 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,088 km | 1,211 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
1F. Jørgensen(G)
36Oso
31Karim Coulibaly
4J. Mitchell
16Genesis Antwi
21Pape Diop
14Dário Essugo
19Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé
10G. Reyna
80Gessime Yassine
40C. Harder
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
39M. Safonov(G)
12L. Digne
21L. Hernández
6I. Zabarnyi
33W. Zaïre-Emery
4Beraldo
27Dro Fernández
87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia
9Ferran Torres
11M. Akliouche
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Strasbourg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals
Attack line −19.6% · Defence line −11.4% of weighted minutes
- DEF I. Doukouré Starter 6.56 Def −9.7%
- ATT M. Godo Starter 7.09 Att −11.8%
- ATT J. Panichelli Rotation 6.80 Att −5.3%
- MID S. Nanasi Rotation 6.87 Att −2.5% Def −1.8%
Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −2.0% · Defence line −1.8% of weighted minutes
- MID S. Mayulu Rotation 6.73 Att −2.0% Def −1.8%
Total impact vs full squads
- Strasbourg-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Paris Saint Germain+1.2 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Strasbourg · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Paris Saint Germain · Away
2.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Strasbourg | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Marseille | L 0–4 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
1 Strasbourg wins3 draws6 Paris Saint Germain wins
Goals per game1.60 – 2.50
Over 2.590%
Both scored90%
Clean sheets0% · 10%
- 1 Feb 2026Strasbourg1–2Paris Saint Germain
- 17 Oct 2025Paris Saint Germain3–3Strasbourg
- 3 May 2025Strasbourg2–1Paris Saint Germain
- 19 Oct 2024Paris Saint Germain4–2Strasbourg
- 2 Feb 2024Strasbourg1–2Paris Saint Germain
- 21 Oct 2023Paris Saint Germain3–0Strasbourg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Strasbourg | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.83 | 3.17 | 4.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 83% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Strasbourg | Paris Saint Germain | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.70 | 4.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Strasbourg | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 7.66 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/4 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 3.67 | 3.39 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Strasbourg | Paris Saint Germain | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.57 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 8.57 | 9.00 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.39 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Willy Delajod France · 118 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.48league 3.24
Red cards0.24league 0.15
Cards 5+35%league 27%
Fouls24.5league 23.7
Penalties0.37league 0.33
Home wins43%league 45%
Strasbourg12 with this referee
Record7-1-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds3
- W25 Jan 26A · Lille4–12
- W14 Sep 25H · LE Havre1–02
- W25 Jan 25H · Lille2–14
- W29 Sep 24H · Marseille1–02
- W13 Apr 24H · Reims3–11
Paris Saint Germain19 with this referee
Record12-4-3
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against4 · 3
- W13 Sep 26A · Stade Brestois 291–02
- W21 Mar 26A · Nice4–01
- W8 Feb 26H · Marseille5–02
- D29 Oct 25A · Lorient1–12
- L25 Apr 25H · Nice1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Strasbourg6 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Paris Saint Germain6 games · scored 11 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 23 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
7
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
