Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arsenal were clear favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (95 vs 59). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sunderland. Sunderland had 7.2 days of rest, Arsenal 3 and had to travel 387 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel387 kmRest days7.2 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 3
Sunderland18%
Draw22%
Arsenal60%
Sunderland14%
Draw19%
Arsenal67%
Sunderland17%
Draw22%
Arsenal61%
Sunderland13%
Draw19%
Arsenal67%
Sunderland18%
Draw23%
Arsenal59%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
18°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 19 km/h
- Humidity 70%
RefereeJohn Brooks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 106
Team strength
Sunderland
Arsenal
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
95
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
94
62
AttackIn forecast
86
59
DefenceIn forecast
95
57
Form indexContext
94
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandArsenal
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.31
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
12.33
ShotsContext
14.33
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
35%
On target shareContext
40%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.33
64%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.67
OffsidesContext
5.33
11.00
Shots allowedContext
8.00
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.33
BlocksContext
1.67
1.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
40%
Save rateContext
83%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
444
PassesContext
536
368
Accurate passesContext
473
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.19
11.00
FoulsContext
9.67
15.33
Fouls sufferedContext
15.33
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.30
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.65
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
12.70
ShotsContext
15.20
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
32%
On target shareContext
34%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
67%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.63
11.80
Shots allowedContext
9.10
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.75
3.30
BlocksContext
2.80
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
65%
Save rateContext
86%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
419
PassesContext
498
345
Accurate passesContext
432
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.09
11.80
FoulsContext
10.50
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
LWD
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km774 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 57 · 4 pts vs 3.2 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
Arsenal
WWWW
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel387 km3,559 km in 14d
Schedule load39%Moderate
Form 94 · 12 pts vs 4.1 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Arsenal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 39 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 3UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 387 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 774 km | 3,559 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
5D. Ballard
4K. Danso
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
10N. Angulo
28E. Le Fée
12T. Meunier
9B. Brobbey
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori
6Gabriel Magalhães
15E. Konsa
4B. White
49M. Lewis-Skelly
41D. Rice
17C. Tzolis
8M. Ødegaard
7B. Saka
29K. Havertz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arsenal
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arsenal-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Arsenal · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Sunderland wins1 draws1 Arsenal wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 7 Feb 2026Arsenal3–0Sunderland
- 8 Nov 2025Sunderland2–2Arsenal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.00 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 7.34 | 8.00 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 3.34 | 4.00 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Sunderland | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 7.90 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.90 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · John Brooks 106 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.39league 3.94
Red cards0.13league 0.06
Cards 5+49%league 42%
Fouls22.5league 23.2
Penalties0.24league 0.14
Home wins53%league 33%
Sunderland3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W17 May 26A · Everton3–10
- D10 Jan 26A · Everton1–15
- L14 Sep 24A · Plymouth2–34
Arsenal5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.6
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D12 Feb 26A · Brentford1–12
- W27 Dec 25H · Brighton2–12
- W4 Oct 25H · West Ham2–00
- L2 Nov 24A · Newcastle0–14
- W6 Apr 24A · Brighton3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland3 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Arsenal2 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Arsenal9 games · scored 15 · conceded 3
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
5
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
