Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Brentford were slight favourites.
Brentford were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 32). Sunderland had 7 days of rest, Brentford 7 and had to travel 387 km.
Away travel387 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sunderland22%
Draw24%
Brentford53%
Sunderland22%
Draw25%
Brentford53%
Sunderland22%
Draw24%
Brentford53%
Sunderland17%
Draw22%
Brentford61%
Sunderland22%
Draw25%
Brentford53%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Taylor
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 181
Team strength
Sunderland
Brentford
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
62
AttackIn forecast
73
59
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBrentford
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandBrentford
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
0.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.74
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
50%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.50
ShotsContext
9.50
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
32%
On target shareContext
26%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
78%
Box shareContext
79%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
—
OffsidesContext
—
9.50
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.50
BlocksContext
5.00
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
100%
Save rateContext
57%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
35%
470
PassesContext
262
390
Accurate passesContext
200
83%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.72
6.50
FoulsContext
13.00
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
40%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.40
ShotsContext
10.80
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
30%
On target shareContext
40%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.78
61%
Box shareContext
84%
6%
ConversionContext
16%
2.71
OffsidesContext
1.40
11.60
Shots allowedContext
14.90
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.70
BlocksContext
5.30
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
69%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
422
PassesContext
342
347
Accurate passesContext
272
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.86
Team ratingContext
7.01
10.70
FoulsContext
10.60
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km269 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Brentford
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel387 km346 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Brentford |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 387 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 269 km | 346 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
20N. Mukiele
32T. Hume
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
19M. Diarra
28E. Le Fée
12Eliezer Mayenda
7C. Talbi
Brentford
Confirmed XI
1C. Kelleher(G)
23K. Lewis-Potter
4S. van den Berg
22N. Collins
33M. Kayode
18Y. Yarmoliuk
6J. Henderson
7K. Schade
24M. Damsgaard
19D. Ouattara
9Thiago
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Absences are shown before kick-off
Brentford
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Brentford+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Brentford · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Brentford | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Sunderland | Brentford | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Brentford | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.50 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 3.00 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Sunderland | Brentford | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 6.30 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 10.60 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.70 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Taylor 181 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.43
Red cards0.16league 0.14
Cards 5+34%league 38%
Fouls21.1league 22.0
Penalties0.28league 0.24
Home wins34%league 52%
SunderlandNo previous matches with this referee.
Brentford7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W4 May 25H · Manchester United4–30
- D14 Jan 25H · Manchester City2–20
- W2 Dec 23H · Luton3–11
- L6 May 23A · Liverpool0–12
- W6 Mar 23H · Fulham3–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Brentford2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 6 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
