Premier League Gameweek 26 Sat, Feb 20 · 15:00 Stadium of Light, Sunderland
Sunderland 20th · 4 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Everton 8th · 10 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel196 kmRest days9.8 · 9.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Sunderland—%
Draw—%
Everton—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Sunderland)

Forecast from 5 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Sunderland and Everton. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

SunderlandEverton
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
57 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
62 AttackIn forecast 61
59 DefenceIn forecast 66
56 Form indexContext 50
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sunderland

Attack—
Defense risk—

Everton

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SunderlandEverton
0.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.37
2.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42
-0.65 Goals minus xGContext -0.23
57% Scored inContext 71%
14% Clean sheetsContext 43%
11.57 ShotsContext 14.43
4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
35% On target shareContext 35%
7.29 Shots in the boxContext 10.83
62% Box shareContext 68%
7% ConversionContext 8%
2.83 OffsidesContext 2.29
14.57 Shots allowedContext 13.71
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.29
4.29 BlocksContext 5.00
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
46% Save rateContext 70%
48% PossessionIn forecast 47%
400 PassesContext 433
316 Accurate passesContext 361
79% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.62 Team ratingContext 6.98
11.43 FoulsContext 7.43
14.14 Fouls sufferedContext 13.29
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.71
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.66 xGVia Att/Def 1.26
1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44
-0.56 Goals minus xGContext -0.16
70% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
14.40 ShotsContext 13.40
4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60
30% On target shareContext 34%
9.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.89
65% Box shareContext 70%
8% ConversionContext 8%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.25
12.40 Shots allowedContext 14.40
3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30
3.90 BlocksContext 5.44
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11
52% Save rateContext 70%
49% PossessionIn forecast 47%
395 PassesContext 414
316 Accurate passesContext 342
80% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.71 Team ratingContext 6.88
12.70 FoulsContext 9.70
13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sunderland
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km292 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Bournemouth0–20.9 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Torreense2–11.8 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Brighton0–21.2 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Manchester City3–50.6 xPts
  • W16 SepH · AZ Alkmaar1–01.7 xPts
Everton
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel196 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 50 · 6 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Chelsea0–21.5 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Hull City2–21.7 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Ipswich1–02.0 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Tottenham0–01.3 xPts
  • D6 SepH · Manchester United2–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Sunderland Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match9.8Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Feb9.8Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km196 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways292 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 50 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sunderland Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Bournemouth (A) 0–2, 18 Oct
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo 15O. Alderete 4K. Danso 20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki 34G. Xhaka
28E. Le Fée 11C. Rigg 32T. Hume
57T. Tuterov
Everton Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Chelsea (H) 0–2, 17 Oct
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko 4J. Branthwaite 6J. Tarkowski 2A. Maitland-Niles
37J. Garner 45H. Armstrong
10J. Grealish 8K. Dewsbury-Hall 34M. Röhl
11T. Barry

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Sunderland Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Everton Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Sunderland · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
0.33
Conceded
1.33
Everton · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-3-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentSunderlandEverton
Bournemouth L 0–2 A D 1–1 A
Ipswich L 1–2 A W 1–0 H
Points0 of 6 · 0.00 per game4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Sunderland wins2 draws0 Everton wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 17 May 2026Everton1–3Sunderland
  • 10 Jan 2026Everton1–1Sunderland
  • 3 Nov 2025Sunderland1–1Everton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SunderlandEvertonForecast
Scored per game 0.861.14
Conceded per game 2.001.00
Match goals 2.862.14
Over 1.5 86%71%
Over 2.5 29%29%
Over 3.5 14%29%
Both teams scored 43%43%
Clean sheets 14%43%
Failed to score 43%29%
Games77
SunderlandEvertonForecast
Scored per game 1.101.10
Conceded per game 1.601.30
Match goals 2.702.40
Over 1.5 80%70%
Over 2.5 40%40%
Over 3.5 10%40%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 20%30%
Failed to score 30%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SunderlandEvertonLeague
Corners
Corners won4.295.33
Corners conceded4.146.00
Match total8.4311.339.49
Over 8.529% 2/767% 4/6
Over 9.529% 2/767% 4/6
Over 10.529% 2/767% 4/6
Cards
Cards2.141.71
Opponent cards1.712.29
Match total3.854.004.17
Over 3.543% 3/757% 4/7
Over 4.543% 3/757% 4/7
SunderlandEvertonLeague
Corners
Corners won5.405.78
Corners conceded3.805.56
Match total9.2011.349.49
Over 8.540% 4/1067% 6/9
Over 9.540% 4/1067% 6/9
Over 10.540% 4/1067% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.601.90
Opponent cards2.001.90
Match total4.603.804.17
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.550% 5/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Sunderland7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1 2 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
1 61-75
1 4 76-90
Everton7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 2 76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1 2 0-15
1 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 6 46-60
3 61-75
2 4 76-90
Everton10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2 0-15
16-30
2 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Bournemouth Crystal Palace Feb 2015:00 Liverpool Hull City Feb 2015:00 Arsenal Fulham Feb 2015:00 Chelsea Ipswich Feb 2015:00 Manchester City Newcastle Feb 2015:00 Brighton Tottenham Feb 2015:00 Brentford Coventry Feb 2015:00 Leeds Aston Villa Feb 2015:00 Nottingham Forest Manchester United Feb 2015:00 Sunderland Everton Feb 2015:00