Premier League Gameweek 26 Sat, Feb 20 · 15:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City 1st · 21 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Newcastle 11th · 8 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel171 kmRest days9.8 · 9.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Manchester City—%
Draw—%
Newcastle—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Manchester)

Forecast from 5 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Manchester City and Newcastle. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Manchester CityNewcastle
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
91 Current StrengthIn forecast 71
92 AttackIn forecast 61
82 DefenceIn forecast 61
93 Form indexContext 35
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack—
Defense risk—

Newcastle

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester CityNewcastle
2.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
2.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.19
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74
+0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.24
100% Scored inContext 86%
43% Clean sheetsContext 14%
14.57 ShotsContext 12.29
5.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57
36% On target shareContext 29%
10.57 Shots in the boxContext 7.57
70% Box shareContext 62%
19% ConversionContext 12%
2.17 OffsidesContext 2.71
11.43 Shots allowedContext 17.43
4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.29
3.00 BlocksContext 7.57
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29
72% Save rateContext 62%
64% PossessionIn forecast 52%
635 PassesContext 430
567 Accurate passesContext 359
89% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.23 Team ratingContext 6.75
10.71 FoulsContext 12.14
14.57 Fouls sufferedContext 11.29
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.71
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
2.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.19
1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60
+0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.21
100% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
16.50 ShotsContext 12.40
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
36% On target shareContext 32%
11.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.30
69% Box shareContext 59%
15% ConversionContext 11%
1.89 OffsidesContext 2.44
11.20 Shots allowedContext 17.50
4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70
2.50 BlocksContext 6.90
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90
68% Save rateContext 68%
62% PossessionIn forecast 53%
606 PassesContext 452
541 Accurate passesContext 380
89% Pass accuracyContext 84%
7.10 Team ratingContext 6.80
11.00 FoulsContext 11.00
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,047 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 93 · 12 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Ipswich3–22.5 xPts
  • L14 OctH · Paris Saint Germain2–41.9 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Liverpool3–01.5 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Sunderland5–32.3 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Manchester United1–01.5 xPts
Newcastle
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel171 km390 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 35 · 4 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Aston Villa0–11.2 xPts
  • L12 OctA · Coventry1–41.5 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Hull City2–12.0 xPts
  • L14 SepA · Leeds1–41.1 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Bournemouth2–21.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Manchester City Newcastle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match9.8Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Feb9.8Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km171 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,047 km390 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 50 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ipswich (H) 3–2, 17 Oct
1G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly 6A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes
32A. Bouaddi 8M. Kovačić
11J. Doku 47P. Foden 7I. Ndiaye
9E. Haaland
Newcastle Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Aston Villa (H) 0–1, 17 Oct
21L. Horníček(G)
3L. Hall 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 67L. Miley
7Joelinton 6Nico González
11H. Barnes 28J. Willock 20M. Fernandez-Pardo
9Y. Wissa

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Manchester City Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Newcastle Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
2.75
Conceded
1.50
Newcastle · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentManchester CityNewcastle
Liverpool W 3–0 A D 2–2 H
Coventry W 1–0 H L 1–4 A
Bournemouth W 2–1 H D 2–2 H
Points9 of 9 · 3.00 per game2 of 9 · 0.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 13 meetings

7 Manchester City wins2 draws1 Newcastle wins
Goals per game2.40 – 0.90 Over 2.560% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 21 Feb 2026Manchester City2–1Newcastle
  • 22 Nov 2025Newcastle2–1Manchester City
  • 15 Feb 2025Manchester City4–0Newcastle
  • 28 Sep 2024Newcastle1–1Manchester City
  • 16 Mar 2024Manchester City2–0Newcastle
  • 13 Jan 2024Newcastle2–3Manchester City

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Manchester CityNewcastleForecast
Scored per game 2.711.43
Conceded per game 1.002.00
Match goals 3.713.43
Over 1.5 71%86%
Over 2.5 71%71%
Over 3.5 43%57%
Both teams scored 57%71%
Clean sheets 43%14%
Failed to score 0%14%
Games77
Manchester CityNewcastleForecast
Scored per game 2.401.40
Conceded per game 1.301.80
Match goals 3.703.20
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 70%60%
Over 3.5 40%50%
Both teams scored 60%70%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 0%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Manchester CityNewcastleLeague
Corners
Corners won5.574.57
Corners conceded4.145.29
Match total9.719.869.49
Over 8.571% 5/757% 4/7
Over 9.557% 4/743% 3/7
Over 10.557% 4/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.432.71
Opponent cards1.862.14
Match total3.294.854.17
Over 3.529% 2/757% 4/7
Over 4.514% 1/757% 4/7
Manchester CityNewcastleLeague
Corners
Corners won6.404.80
Corners conceded3.704.60
Match total10.109.409.49
Over 8.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 9.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 10.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.502.20
Opponent cards1.502.20
Match total3.004.404.17
Over 3.530% 3/1060% 6/10
Over 4.510% 1/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Manchester City7 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
5 1 76-90
Newcastle7 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3 2 0-15
16-30
1 5 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
2 3 76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
1 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
6 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 1 76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
4 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
1 5 31-45
1 3 46-60
5 2 61-75
2 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Bournemouth Crystal Palace Feb 2015:00 Liverpool Hull City Feb 2015:00 Arsenal Fulham Feb 2015:00 Chelsea Ipswich Feb 2015:00 Manchester City Newcastle Feb 2015:00 Brighton Tottenham Feb 2015:00 Brentford Coventry Feb 2015:00 Leeds Aston Villa Feb 2015:00 Nottingham Forest Manchester United Feb 2015:00 Sunderland Everton Feb 2015:00