Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Sunderland
12th · 47 pts · 35 played
WWLLD
0–0Full time
Manchester United
3rd · 64 pts · 35 played
DLWWW
Our take
Manchester United were slight favourites.
Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 52). Sunderland had 7 days of rest, Manchester United 6 and had to travel 168 km.
Away travel168 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Sunderland24%
Draw23%
Manchester United53%
Sunderland25%
Draw26%
Manchester United49%
Sunderland24%
Draw23%
Manchester United52%
Sunderland18%
Draw21%
Manchester United61%
Sunderland24%
Draw24%
Manchester United52%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
No weather data yet
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 139
Team strength
SunderlandManchester United
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
55
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
62
AttackIn forecast
72
59
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandManchester United
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.31
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.37
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
66%
Scored inContext
91%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
10.09
ShotsContext
15.57
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.71
33%
On target shareContext
37%
7.42
Shots in the boxContext
10.38
70%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.60
Shots allowedContext
11.49
4.74
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.74
4.49
BlocksContext
3.82
3.42
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
71%
Save rateContext
66%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
370
PassesContext
466
292
Accurate passesContext
386
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.98
10.60
FoulsContext
10.03
11.09
Fouls sufferedContext
11.03
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
70%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.20
ShotsContext
13.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
31%
On target shareContext
40%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
68%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.67
15.80
Shots allowedContext
12.50
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
5.20
BlocksContext
4.30
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
69%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
355
PassesContext
479
277
Accurate passesContext
399
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.73
Team ratingContext
7.02
12.00
FoulsContext
10.20
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km525 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester United
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel168 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Manchester United |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 2 May | 6Premier League 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 168 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 525 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
20N. Mukiele
6L. Geertruida
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
7C. Talbi
28E. Le Fée
32T. Hume
9B. Brobbey
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
6L. Martínez
5J. Maguire
3N. Mazraoui
37K. Mainoo
7Mason Mount
10Matheus Cunha
8Bruno Fernandes
16A. Diallo
11J. Zirkzee
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester United
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Manchester United+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
1.71points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-4
- Scored
- 1.35
- Conceded
- 1.12
Manchester United · Away
1.47points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-7-4
- Scored
- 1.59
- Conceded
- 1.53
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sunderland | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Nottingham Forest | L 0–5 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Aston Villa | L 3–4 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Tottenham | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Brighton | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | W 4–2 H |
| Leeds | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Bournemouth | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H | D 2–2 AD 4–4 H |
| Fulham | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Liverpool | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | W 3–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–3 AD 2–2 H | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Burnley | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H |
| West Ham | L 1–3 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Brentford | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Manchester City | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Everton | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 47 of 102 · 1.38 per game | 61 of 102 · 1.79 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Sunderland wins0 draws1 Manchester United wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 4 Oct 2025Manchester United2–0Sunderland
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.31 | 1.37 | |
| Match goals | 2.37 | 3.17 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 63% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 74% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 34% | 9% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Sunderland | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.90 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.54 | 4.62 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.23 | 5.09 | |
| Match total | 8.77 | 9.71 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 20/35 | 56% 19/34 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 15/35 | 53% 18/34 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 10/35 | 35% 12/34 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.12 | 4.00 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 20/35 | 63% 22/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 16/35 | 46% 16/35 | |
| Sunderland | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 10.20 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.90 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 139 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.01league 3.80
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+45%league 39%
Fouls21.1league 21.6
Penalties0.21league 0.21
Home wins47%league 43%
Sunderland6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W3 Mar 26A · Leeds1–03
- D4 Jan 26A · Tottenham1–13
- D3 Dec 25A · Liverpool1–11
- L4 Oct 25A · Manchester United0–24
- L17 Feb 25A · Leeds1–26
Manchester United14 with this referee
Record7-5-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.6
Pens for · against3 · 3
Reds1
- D20 Mar 26A · Bournemouth2–23
- D7 Jan 26A · Burnley2–20
- W4 Oct 25H · Sunderland2–01
- W14 Sep 24A · Southampton3–04
- W26 Aug 23H · Nottingham Forest3–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland35 games · scored 37 · conceded 46
2
8
0-15
6
5
16-30
4
9
31-45
4
7
46-60
10
9
61-75
11
8
76-90
Manchester United35 games · scored 63 · conceded 48
7
5
0-15
7
5
16-30
12
6
31-45
11
10
46-60
11
8
61-75
15
14
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
6
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
