Telstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Telstar were slight favourites.
Telstar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for ADO Den Haag. Telstar had 21 days of rest, ADO Den Haag 21.9 and had to travel.
Rest days21 · 21.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Telstar55%
Draw23%
ADO Den Haag23%
Telstar55%
Draw24%
ADO Den Haag22%
Telstar54%
Draw23%
ADO Den Haag23%
Telstar47%
Draw24%
ADO Den Haag29%
Telstar55%
Draw22%
ADO Den Haag23%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Velsen-Zuid)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.09
- Matches 33
Team strength
Telstar
ADO Den Haag
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
24
AttackIn forecast
15
13
DefenceIn forecast
18
11
Form indexContext
10
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisADO Den Haag
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TelstarADO Den Haag
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.43
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
2.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.32
-0.69
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
43%
Scored inContext
71%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.00
ShotsContext
11.71
2.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
27%
On target shareContext
31%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.57
66%
Box shareContext
55%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.00
18.00
Shots allowedContext
16.00
6.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.71
5.00
BlocksContext
4.43
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.29
75%
Save rateContext
69%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
354
PassesContext
418
276
Accurate passesContext
340
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.66
10.57
FoulsContext
13.71
14.29
Fouls sufferedContext
10.57
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.78
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.22
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.32
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
60%
Scored inContext
56%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.50
ShotsContext
12.22
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
33%
On target shareContext
27%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.89
70%
Box shareContext
56%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.75
16.70
Shots allowedContext
14.22
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.56
4.70
BlocksContext
4.22
4.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
77%
Save rateContext
66%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
332
PassesContext
424
251
Accurate passesContext
344
76%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.50
FoulsContext
14.33
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.11
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.56
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Telstar
LDLDL
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -3.1 vs expected
ADO Den Haag
LDLLD
Rest21.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 10 · 2 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Telstar |
ADO Den Haag |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21Eredivisie 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 21.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
43M. Peersman
4A. Soualhia
16S. Valk
3G. Alders
17N. Rossen
10T. Owusu
23N. Shenkman
27P. Brouwer
9Jelani Seedorf
7Rui Mendes
ADO Den Haag
Confirmed XI
1K. Nikiéma(G)
15M. Hokke
4M. Waem
3P. Mulder
5J. Jensen-Abbew
17J. Hawkins
33M. Šín
25J. Kilo
11E. Rottier
46Y. Eduardo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Telstar
Absences are shown before kick-off
ADO Den Haag
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Telstar+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- ADO Den Haag-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Telstar · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
ADO Den Haag · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Telstar | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Twente | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Cambuur | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Telstar wins0 draws0 ADO Den Haag wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 17 May 2025ADO Den Haag0–1Telstar
- 13 May 2025Telstar2–0ADO Den Haag
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Telstar | ADO Den Haag | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 2.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 3.43 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Telstar | ADO Den Haag | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.43 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 57% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 71% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 29% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Telstar | ADO Den Haag | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.57 | 6.83 | |
| Match total | 10.57 | 11.16 | 10.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 1.29 | |
| Match total | 3.14 | 2.86 | 2.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Telstar | ADO Den Haag | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.63 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.76 | 10.25 | 10.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.56 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.12 | 2.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.97league 2.65
Red cards0.03league 0.04
Cards 5+9%league 10%
Fouls22.4league 21.1
Penalties0.09league 0.20
Home wins39%league 32%
Telstar2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Apr 26H · Sparta Rotterdam4–12
- L20 Sep 25A · Groningen0–22
ADO Den Haag1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L8 Aug 26A · AZ Alkmaar0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Telstar7 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
ADO Den Haag7 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
8
61-75
2
2
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
ADO Den Haag9 games · scored 7 · conceded 20
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
5
31-45
3
46-60
1
9
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
