Telstar
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Telstar54.0%fair odds 1.85
Draw23.6%fair odds 4.23
ADO Den Haag22.4%fair odds 4.46
Expected goals1.87 – 1.14total 3.01
Likeliest score1–111.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
ADO Den Haag
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Telstar ↓ · ADO Den Haag → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Telstar goals, columns ADO Den Haag goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%9.05
- 2–19.8%10.17
- 1–08.6%11.56
- 2–08.6%11.59
- 3–16.1%16.29
- 1–26.0%16.73
- 2–25.6%17.86
- 0–05.5%18.29
- 3–05.4%18.56
- 0–15.0%19.83
Winning margin
14.6%
Telstar by 3+
fair 6.83
16.7%
Telstar by 2
fair 6.00
22.7%
Telstar by 1
fair 4.41
23.6%
Draw
fair 4.23
13.6%
ADO Den Haag by 1
fair 7.37
6.2%
ADO Den Haag by 2
fair 16.23
2.7%
ADO Den Haag by 3+
fair 37.45
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Telstar goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
ADO Den Haag goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar win | 54.0% | 54.9% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 23.6% | 23.1% | +0.5 pp |
| ADO Den Haag win | 22.4% | 22.0% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 59.8% | -1.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.1% | 59.3% | -1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Telstar | 1.87 | 1.94 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals ADO Den Haag | 1.14 | 1.16 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Telstar win54.0%1.85
- Draw23.6%4.23
- ADO Den Haag win22.4%4.46
- Double chance Telstar or draw77.6%1.29
- Double chance Telstar or ADO Den Haag76.4%1.31
- Double chance ADO Den Haag or draw46.0%2.17
- Draw no bet Telstar70.7%1.42
- Draw no bet ADO Den Haag29.3%3.41
Goals
- Over 0.594.5%1.06
- Over 1.580.8%1.24
- Over 2.558.0%1.72
- Over 3.535.6%2.81
- Over 4.518.7%5.35
- Under 1.519.2%5.22
- Under 2.542.0%2.38
- Under 3.564.4%1.55
Both teams to score
- Yes58.1%1.72
- No41.9%2.39
- Yes and over 2.547.1%2.12
- Telstar win and yes27.4%3.64
- Draw and yes18.2%5.50
- ADO Den Haag win and yes12.5%7.99
Team goals
- Telstar over 0.584.6%1.18
- Telstar over 1.555.9%1.79
- Telstar over 2.528.9%3.46
- ADO Den Haag over 0.568.0%1.47
- ADO Den Haag over 1.531.5%3.17
- ADO Den Haag over 2.510.8%9.29
- Telstar clean sheet32.0%3.13
- ADO Den Haag clean sheet15.4%6.51
- Telstar win to nil26.5%3.77
- ADO Den Haag win to nil9.9%10.12
Handicap
- Telstar −1.531.3%3.20
- Telstar −2.514.6%6.83
- ADO Den Haag +1.568.7%1.46
- ADO Den Haag +2.585.4%1.17
- ADO Den Haag −1.58.8%11.32
- Telstar +1.591.2%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored69
Favourite won53.6%
Avg chance given to result42.2%
1X2 Brier0.600
Over 2.5 called right72.5%
BTTS called right68.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.6% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 16 | 45.9% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 25 | 55.1% | 56.0% |
| 60–70% | 12 | 65.3% | 58.3% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 73.4% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 83.6% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 43 of 69 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6280 | 0.6348 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.0% | 41.4% |
| Favourite won | 48.8% | 46.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 43 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 69 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.