Telstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 23). Absences weigh more on NEC Nijmegen. Telstar had 6.9 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 6.1 and had to travel 107 km.
Away travel107 kmRest days6.9 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Telstar35%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen39%
Telstar33%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen39%
Telstar33%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen40%
Telstar28%
Draw25%
NEC Nijmegen47%
Telstar35%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen38%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Velsen-Zuid)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRichard Martens
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 12
Team strength
Telstar
NEC Nijmegen
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
24
AttackIn forecast
37
13
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TelstarNEC Nijmegen
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.79
67%
Scored inContext
93%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.27
ShotsContext
15.93
4.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.80
34%
On target shareContext
43%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
61%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.67
15.80
Shots allowedContext
11.20
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.07
4.80
BlocksContext
2.00
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.64
72%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
364
PassesContext
423
286
Accurate passesContext
339
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.00
11.07
FoulsContext
12.07
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.53
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
2.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.81
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.70
ShotsContext
14.70
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
31%
On target shareContext
40%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
58%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.63
17.00
Shots allowedContext
11.10
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
5.10
BlocksContext
2.00
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
75%
Save rateContext
72%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
357
PassesContext
396
276
Accurate passesContext
315
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.60
FoulsContext
12.40
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Telstar
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km274 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NEC Nijmegen
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel107 km180 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Telstar |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 107 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 274 km | 180 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
6D. Bakker
4G. Offerhaus
14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo
2J. Hardeveld
8T. Owusu
17N. Rossen
11T. Noslin
27P. Brouwer
39J. Ritmeester van de Kamp
7S. Hetli
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
3P. Sandler
14E. Dasa
11B. Önal
23K. Sano
6D. Nejašmić
25S. Ouaissa
30B. Linssen
10T. Chery
18K. Ogawa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Telstar
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Telstar+1.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- NEC Nijmegen-1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Telstar · Home
0.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 1.63
- Conceded
- 2.13
NEC Nijmegen · Away
1.38points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-3
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Telstar | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles | D 1–1 A | W 4–1 A |
| Feyenoord | L 1–2 H | W 4–2 A |
| Utrecht | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Twente | D 0–0 A | D 3–3 H |
| Excelsior | D 2–2 H | W 5–0 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Heerenveen | L 2–3 H | L 2–3 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 4–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Groningen | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 1–3 H | L 2–3 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | W 2–0 A | L 3–5 H |
| FC Volendam | D 2–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 11 of 42 · 0.79 per game | 24 of 42 · 1.71 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Telstar | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 4.27 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 80% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 73% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 7% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Telstar | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.80 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Telstar | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 5.53 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.43 | 4.13 | |
| Match total | 11.29 | 9.66 | 10.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 79% 11/14 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 9/14 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 8/14 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.87 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.47 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.34 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 6/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 5/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Telstar | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 10.30 | 10.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Richard Martens Netherlands · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.92league 3.36
Red cards0.17league 0.22
Cards 5+17%league 33%
Fouls20.3league 21.9
Penalties0.17league 0.28
Home wins42%league 47%
TelstarNo previous matches with this referee.
NEC Nijmegen1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Dec 24A · Willem II1–42
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Telstar15 games · scored 17 · conceded 25
2
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
5
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
8
76-90
NEC Nijmegen15 games · scored 39 · conceded 25
4
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
6
31-45
8
6
46-60
9
3
61-75
10
4
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
5
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
