Telstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Telstar
16th · 24 pts · 27 played
DLWWL
First leg2–0
3–1Full time
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 68 pts · 27 played
LWWWL
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were slight favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Telstar. Telstar had 7.9 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 7.9 and had to travel 127 km.
Away travel127 kmRest days7.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Telstar20%
Draw20%
PSV Eindhoven60%
Telstar15%
Draw21%
PSV Eindhoven64%
Telstar19%
Draw20%
PSV Eindhoven61%
Telstar15%
Draw17%
PSV Eindhoven68%
Telstar21%
Draw21%
PSV Eindhoven58%
Over 2.5 71%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Velsen-Zuid)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 48
Team strength
TelstarPSV Eindhoven
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
76
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
24
AttackIn forecast
60
13
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TelstarPSV Eindhoven
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.85
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.26
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
2.03
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.82
74%
Scored inContext
96%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
12.67
ShotsContext
17.44
4.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.11
37%
On target shareContext
41%
8.12
Shots in the boxContext
12.22
62%
Box shareContext
71%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.26
OffsidesContext
2.05
15.52
Shots allowedContext
11.30
6.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.85
4.68
BlocksContext
3.70
4.46
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
72%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
359
PassesContext
554
278
Accurate passesContext
480
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.08
11.41
FoulsContext
11.22
10.41
Fouls sufferedContext
8.56
1.22
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.20
ShotsContext
16.10
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
41%
On target shareContext
39%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.10
62%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.78
15.60
Shots allowedContext
11.80
7.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.44
BlocksContext
4.11
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
70%
Save rateContext
64%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
365
PassesContext
544
280
Accurate passesContext
464
77%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.98
11.90
FoulsContext
10.00
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
0.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Telstar
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km204 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel127 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Telstar |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 127 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 204 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 12.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
6D. Bakker
21D. Koswal
14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo
2J. Hardeveld
27P. Brouwer
23C. Hatenboer
8T. Owusu
3G. Alders
7S. Hetli
37Sem van Duijn
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
2A. Salah-Eddine
4A. Obispo
6R. Flamingo
25K. Sildillia
34I. Saibari
20G. Til
22J. Schouten
5I. Perišić
9R. Pepi
27D. Man
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Telstar
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.12 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Telstar+1.3 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- PSV Eindhoven-1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Telstar · Home
0.85points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-6
- Scored
- 1.62
- Conceded
- 1.85
PSV Eindhoven · Away
2.77points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 12-0-1
- Scored
- 2.62
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Telstar | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | W 3–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 4–1 AL 1–3 H | W 2–1 AW 5–2 H |
| NAC Breda | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Feyenoord | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Twente | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 AW 4–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| PEC Zwolle | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H | W 4–0 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 HW 5–1 A |
| Excelsior | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Ajax | L 2–3 HL 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 2–2 H | L 2–3 HW 5–3 A |
| Heracles | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 AW 4–3 H |
| Utrecht | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 A | W 6–1 H |
| Groningen | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 AW 4–2 H |
| FC Volendam | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Points | 21 of 78 · 0.81 per game | 68 of 78 · 2.62 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Telstar wins0 draws0 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 30 Aug 2025PSV Eindhoven0–2Telstar
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Telstar | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.85 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.26 | |
| Match goals | 2.96 | 4.11 | 3.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 96% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 85% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 52% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 74% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 4% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Telstar | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.80 | 3.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 100% | 71% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Telstar | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 7.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.92 | 4.26 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 11.33 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 77% 20/26 | 81% 22/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 16/26 | 81% 22/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 14/26 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.08 | 3.03 | 3.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 9/27 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 26% 7/27 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Telstar | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 6.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 11.10 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.54league 3.23
Red cards0.10league 0.17
Cards 5+23%league 27%
Fouls19.8league 21.4
Penalties0.23league 0.24
Home wins56%league 45%
Telstar1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 May 25A · ADO Den Haag1–04
PSV Eindhoven4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W8 Feb 26A · Groningen2–11
- W22 Nov 25A · NAC Breda1–01
- W13 Jan 24H · Excelsior3–10
- W27 Sep 23H · GO Ahead Eagles3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Telstar27 games · scored 35 · conceded 45
5
5
0-15
4
8
16-30
6
7
31-45
5
3
46-60
6
8
61-75
9
14
76-90
PSV Eindhoven27 games · scored 77 · conceded 34
13
3
0-15
15
4
16-30
14
10
31-45
11
3
46-60
9
9
61-75
15
5
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
3
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
5
5
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 19 · conceded 16
4
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
7
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
