Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam – 22 Apr 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Wed, Apr 22 · 19:00 BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid

Telstar 16th · 27 pts · 30 played WLWLL

First leg0–1 4–1Full time

Sparta Rotterdam 10th · 42 pts · 30 played DLWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Telstar were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Telstar. Telstar had 11.1 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 11.1 and had to travel 61 km.

Away travel61 kmRest days11.1 · 11.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Telstar47%

Draw25%

Sparta Rotterdam28%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.27

Telstar43%

Draw27%

Sparta Rotterdam30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Telstar46%

Draw25%

Sparta Rotterdam29%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.27

Telstar39%

Draw26%

Sparta Rotterdam35%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.42

Telstar46%

Draw26%

Sparta Rotterdam28%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.24

Over 2.5 57% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Velsen-Zuid)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.11
Matches 27

Team strength

Telstar

Sparta Rotterdam

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

24 AttackIn forecast 32

13 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Telstar

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Telstar

Sparta Rotterdam

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

1.73 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.63

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

73% Scored inContext 73%

13% Clean sheetsContext 37%

12.60 ShotsContext 12.37

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

38% On target shareContext 36%

8.07 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

62% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.24 OffsidesContext 1.72

15.93 Shots allowedContext 15.50

6.52 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

4.61 BlocksContext 4.37

4.69 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.17

72% Save rateContext 71%

45% PossessionIn forecast 47%

364 PassesContext 388

283 Accurate passesContext 311

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.90

11.00 FoulsContext 9.57

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.43

1.17 Yellow cardsContext 1.87

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.82 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

80% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.70 ShotsContext 11.80

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

46% On target shareContext 37%

8.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

66% Box shareContext 65%

12% ConversionContext 9%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.00

17.40 Shots allowedContext 12.90

8.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

4.78 BlocksContext 4.40

6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

73% Save rateContext 69%

50% PossessionIn forecast 49%

387 PassesContext 406

304 Accurate passesContext 328

78% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.50 FoulsContext 11.60

8.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

0.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Telstar

Rest11.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km104 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sparta Rotterdam

Rest11.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel61 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Telstar	Sparta Rotterdam
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	11.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Apr	11.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	61 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	104 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	10	10.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Telstar Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1R. Koeman(G)

6D. Bakker 21D. Koswal 14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo

2J. Hardeveld 23C. Hatenboer 4G. Offerhaus 11T. Noslin

27P. Brouwer 8T. Owusu

37Sem van Duijn

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Sparta Rotterdam Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1J. Drommel(G)

5G. Vianello 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes

8A. Santos 6J. Kitolano 4J. Baas 7M. van Bergen

10Vito van Crooij

11Milan Zonneveld 9T. Lauritsen

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Telstar Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sparta Rotterdam Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Telstar+0.7 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Sparta Rotterdam-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Telstar · Home 0.93points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 3-5-7
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 1.80

Sparta Rotterdam · Away 1.33points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 6-2-7
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Telstar	Sparta Rotterdam
Utrecht	L 1–4 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H
Groningen	L 0–2 HL 0–2 A	W 2–0 HW 2–0 A
PSV Eindhoven	W 3–1 HW 2–0 A	L 0–2 HL 1–6 A
Heerenveen	L 0–3 AL 2–3 H	L 1–2 AL 0–3 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 4–1 AL 1–3 H	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H
NAC Breda	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Feyenoord	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	W 4–3 AL 0–4 H
Twente	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A	L 1–5 H
GO Ahead Eagles	D 1–1 AW 4–2 H	W 3–0 A
PEC Zwolle	L 1–4 AL 0–2 H	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A	L 1–3 AL 0–1 H
Excelsior	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	W 1–0 A
Ajax	L 2–3 HL 0–2 A	L 0–4 AD 3–3 H
NEC Nijmegen	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 HL 1–3 A
Heracles	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 HL 0–3 A
FC Volendam	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A
Points	27 of 87 · 0.93 per game	39 of 87 · 1.34 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Telstar wins0 draws1 Sparta Rotterdam wins

Goals per game0.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

25 Oct 2025Sparta Rotterdam1–0Telstar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Telstar	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.17
Conceded per game	1.73	1.63
Match goals	3.03	2.80	2.96
Over 1.5	87%	73%
Over 2.5	57%	47%	57%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	63%	40%	59%
Clean sheets	13%	37%
Failed to score	27%	27%
Games	30	30

	Telstar	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.00
Conceded per game	1.90	1.50
Match goals	3.40	2.50	2.96
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	57%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Telstar	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.72	4.79
Corners conceded	6.38	6.39
Match total	11.10	11.18	10.27
Over 8.5	79% 23/29	86% 24/28
Over 9.5	66% 19/29	68% 19/28
Over 10.5	59% 17/29	57% 16/28
Cards
Cards	1.23	1.93
Opponent cards	1.80	2.07
Match total	3.03	4.00	3.35
Over 3.5	30% 9/30	67% 20/30
Over 4.5	23% 7/30	37% 11/30

	Telstar	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	5.20
Corners conceded	7.30	5.10
Match total	11.50	10.30	10.27
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	0.70	2.00
Opponent cards	1.70	2.50
Match total	2.40	4.50	3.35
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 27 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.19league 3.18

Red cards0.04league 0.17

Cards 5+11%league 26%

Fouls22.4league 21.2

Penalties0.11league 0.23

Home wins41%league 45%

Telstar1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L20 Sep 25A · Groningen0–22

Sparta Rotterdam3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W25 Jan 26A · Utrecht1–03
D22 Nov 25H · Fortuna Sittard1–11
W13 Jan 24A · Fortuna Sittard2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.