Telstar
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Telstar
16th · 27 pts · 30 played
WLWLL
First leg0–1
4–1Full time
Sparta Rotterdam
10th · 42 pts · 30 played
DLWDL
Telstar46.6%fair odds 2.15
Draw25.1%fair odds 3.98
Sparta Rotterdam28.3%fair odds 3.53
Expected goals1.68 – 1.27total 2.96
Likeliest score1–111.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sparta Rotterdam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Telstar ↓ · Sparta Rotterdam → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Telstar goals, columns Sparta Rotterdam goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%8.52
- 2–19.4%10.65
- 1–08.2%12.22
- 2–07.4%13.53
- 1–27.1%14.13
- 0–16.0%16.60
- 2–26.0%16.77
- 0–05.8%17.25
- 3–15.3%18.97
- 0–24.2%23.80
Winning margin
10.7%
Telstar by 3+
fair 9.37
14.3%
Telstar by 2
fair 7.00
21.6%
Telstar by 1
fair 4.63
25.1%
Draw
fair 3.98
16.1%
Sparta Rotterdam by 1
fair 6.20
8.1%
Sparta Rotterdam by 2
fair 12.31
4.1%
Sparta Rotterdam by 3+
fair 24.58
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Telstar goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Sparta Rotterdam goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Telstar win | 46.6% | 46.2% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.1% | 25.5% | -0.4 pp |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 28.3% | 28.3% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 55.0% | +1.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.2% | 57.9% | +1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Telstar | 1.68 | 1.64 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Sparta Rotterdam | 1.27 | 1.24 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Telstar win46.6%2.15
- Draw25.1%3.98
- Sparta Rotterdam win28.3%3.53
- Double chance Telstar or draw71.7%1.40
- Double chance Telstar or Sparta Rotterdam74.9%1.34
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw53.4%1.87
- Draw no bet Telstar62.2%1.61
- Draw no bet Sparta Rotterdam37.8%2.64
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.580.0%1.25
- Over 2.556.7%1.76
- Over 3.534.3%2.92
- Over 4.517.7%5.64
- Under 1.520.0%5.00
- Under 2.543.3%2.31
- Under 3.565.7%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes59.2%1.69
- No40.8%2.45
- Yes and over 2.547.4%2.11
- Telstar win and yes24.3%4.12
- Draw and yes19.3%5.18
- Sparta Rotterdam win and yes15.6%6.42
Team goals
- Telstar over 0.581.5%1.23
- Telstar over 1.550.2%1.99
- Telstar over 2.523.9%4.19
- Sparta Rotterdam over 0.571.9%1.39
- Sparta Rotterdam over 1.536.3%2.76
- Sparta Rotterdam over 2.513.6%7.35
- Telstar clean sheet28.1%3.56
- Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet18.5%5.39
- Telstar win to nil22.3%4.49
- Sparta Rotterdam win to nil12.7%7.84
Handicap
- Telstar −1.525.0%4.00
- Telstar −2.510.7%9.37
- Sparta Rotterdam +1.575.0%1.33
- Sparta Rotterdam +2.589.3%1.12
- Sparta Rotterdam −1.512.2%8.20
- Telstar +1.587.8%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored270
Favourite won51.5%
Avg chance given to result41.1%
1X2 Brier0.588
Over 2.5 called right61.9%
BTTS called right61.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 41 | 38.0% | 34.1% |
| 40–50% | 100 | 44.9% | 46.0% |
| 50–60% | 66 | 55.2% | 47.0% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 64.5% | 68.6% |
| 70–80% | 21 | 74.3% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 221 of 270 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5894 | 0.5819 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.9% | 42.3% |
| Favourite won | 50.7% | 52.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 221 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 270 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.