Telstar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 23). Absences weigh more on Utrecht. Telstar had 15.8 days of rest, Utrecht 14.1 and had to travel 52 km.
Away travel52 kmRest days15.8 · 14.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Telstar35%
Draw27%
Utrecht38%
Telstar34%
Draw27%
Utrecht39%
Telstar34%
Draw27%
Utrecht39%
Telstar28%
Draw26%
Utrecht46%
Telstar35%
Draw27%
Utrecht38%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Velsen-Zuid)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 20
Team strength
Telstar
Utrecht
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
24
AttackIn forecast
32
13
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TelstarUtrecht
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
58%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.92
ShotsContext
14.58
5.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
37%
On target shareContext
36%
9.08
Shots in the boxContext
9.92
64%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.30
OffsidesContext
1.63
16.50
Shots allowedContext
11.50
6.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.58
4.67
BlocksContext
4.00
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
70%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
356
PassesContext
412
279
Accurate passesContext
333
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.50
FoulsContext
11.25
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.83
1.58
Yellow cardsContext
1.08
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.80
ShotsContext
11.60
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
37%
On target shareContext
30%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
65%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.50
17.30
Shots allowedContext
12.90
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.90
BlocksContext
4.44
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
72%
Save rateContext
72%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
348
PassesContext
368
269
Accurate passesContext
292
77%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.30
FoulsContext
13.70
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Telstar
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Utrecht
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel52 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Telstar |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Nov | 14.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 52 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Telstar
Confirmed XI
1R. Koeman(G)
6D. Bakker
21D. Koswal
14Nigel Ogidi Nwankwo
2J. Hardeveld
8T. Owusu
4G. Offerhaus
15A. Lechkar
27P. Brouwer
17N. Rossen
7S. Hetli
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
40M. Didden
2S. Horemans
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
20D. de Wit
10Y. Cathline
91S. Haller
22Miguel Rodríguez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Telstar
Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Telstar+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Utrecht-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Telstar · Home
0.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 2.33
Utrecht · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Telstar | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | D 2–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Heerenveen | L 2–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–2 A | L 1–4 A |
| Groningen | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 1–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| FC Volendam | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Ajax | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 2 of 27 · 0.22 per game | 13 of 27 · 1.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Telstar | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.92 | 3.17 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 58% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 17% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Telstar | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.80 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Telstar | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.27 | 4.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.64 | 4.36 | |
| Match total | 11.91 | 8.91 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 91% 10/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 73% 8/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 64% 7/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.08 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.58 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 2.75 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 4/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 4/12 | 8% 1/12 | |
| Telstar | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 11.30 | 8.55 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.70league 3.29
Red cards0.25league 0.22
Cards 5+25%league 31%
Fouls20.9league 21.9
Penalties0.10league 0.28
Home wins50%league 49%
Telstar1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Aug 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–01
Utrecht2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.0.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L9 Feb 25H · Almere City FC0–11
- W8 Nov 24H · Heracles1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Telstar12 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
2
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
4
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Utrecht12 games · scored 22 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
6
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
