Tondela vs Famalicao – 16 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 16 · 15:30 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior

Tondela 15th · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–1Full time

Famalicao 3rd · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Famalicao were slight favourites.

Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 20). Tondela had 5.8 days of rest, Famalicao 5.9 and had to travel 233 km.

Away travel233 kmRest days5.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Tondela31%

Draw28%

Famalicao41%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.37

Tondela32%

Draw27%

Famalicao41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.45

Tondela31%

Draw28%

Famalicao41%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.37

Tondela25%

Draw27%

Famalicao48%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.53

Tondela32%

Draw27%

Famalicao41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rio Maior)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.40
Matches 5

Team strength

Tondela

Famalicao

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 36

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

16 AttackIn forecast 24

29 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tondela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tondela

Famalicao

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

— Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

— xGVia Att/Def 1.51

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

— Goals minus xGContext +0.39

— Scored inContext 100%

— Clean sheetsContext 20%

— ShotsContext 10.10

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

— On target shareContext 37%

— Shots in the boxContext 6.10

— Box shareContext 58%

— ConversionContext 19%

— OffsidesContext 1.60

— Shots allowedContext 10.90

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

— BlocksContext 2.88

— Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38

— Save rateContext 68%

— PossessionIn forecast 48%

— PassesContext 358

— Accurate passesContext 288

— Pass accuracyContext 80%

— Team ratingContext 6.98

— FoulsContext 15.80

— Fouls sufferedContext 17.00

— Yellow cardsContext 2.50

— Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 0 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tondela

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel150 km237 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Famalicao

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel233 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tondela	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 10 Aug	5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 10 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	150 km	233 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	237 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tondela Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31Bernardo Fontes(G)

60N. Maviram 5João Afonso 4Christian Marques 48Tiago Manso

97Cicero 10J. Hodge

67Yarlen 14Xabi Huarte 70M. Ouattara

9Miro

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 16J. de Haas 3L. Realpe 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

7Sorriso 20Gustavo Sá 23Gil Dias

12S. Elisor

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tondela Absences are shown before kick-off

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tondela+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Famalicao-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Tondela · Home No home games yet this season.

Famalicao · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Tondela	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	3.00
Conceded per game	3.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	2.55
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Tondela	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	3.00
Conceded per game	3.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	2.55
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tondela	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	2.00
Corners conceded	5.00	3.00
Match total	7.00	5.00	9.63
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	3.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	4.00	5.00	4.75
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Tondela	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	5.70
Corners conceded	5.00	5.00
Match total	7.00	10.70	9.63
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.70
Opponent cards	1.00	4.40
Match total	4.00	7.10	4.75
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 10/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	90% 9/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.00league 5.11

Red cards0.20league 0.00

Cards 5+60%league 56%

Fouls27.5league 28.0

Penalties0.40league 0.33

Home wins80%league 56%

Tondela

No previous matches with this referee.

Famalicao

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.