Tondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Guimaraes were slight favourites.
Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 18). Tondela had 6.1 days of rest, Guimaraes 6.9 and had to travel 105 km.
Away travel105 kmRest days6.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Tondela28%
Draw28%
Guimaraes45%
Tondela28%
Draw27%
Guimaraes45%
Tondela28%
Draw28%
Guimaraes45%
Tondela22%
Draw26%
Guimaraes52%
Tondela28%
Draw27%
Guimaraes45%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Tondela)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAndre Filipe Domingues Narciso
- Cards per match 6.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Tondela
Guimaraes
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
16
AttackIn forecast
28
29
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGuimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TondelaGuimaraes
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.54
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
30%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.30
ShotsContext
12.50
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
35%
On target shareContext
30%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
58%
Box shareContext
49%
5%
ConversionContext
7%
3.22
OffsidesContext
2.63
14.20
Shots allowedContext
13.10
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.78
BlocksContext
3.50
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
72%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
319
PassesContext
358
256
Accurate passesContext
290
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.00
FoulsContext
13.90
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.54
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
30%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.30
ShotsContext
12.50
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
35%
On target shareContext
30%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
58%
Box shareContext
49%
5%
ConversionContext
7%
3.22
OffsidesContext
2.63
14.20
Shots allowedContext
13.10
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.78
BlocksContext
3.50
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
72%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
319
PassesContext
358
256
Accurate passesContext
290
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.00
FoulsContext
13.90
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tondela
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Guimaraes
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel105 km38 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tondela |
Guimaraes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 105 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 38 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.1 | 20.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
60N. Maviram
20Brayan Medina
4Christian Marques
2Bebeto
15S. Sithole
32Juan Rodríguez
17Ivan Cavaleiro
8Hélder Tavares
7Pedro Henryque
79Hugo Félix
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
25Juan Castillo(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
26R. Abascal
4Óscar Rivas
2Miguel Maga
6Matija Mitrović
16Beni
19O. Camara
20Samu
18Telmo Arcanjo
7Nélson Oliveira
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tondela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Tondela · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Guimaraes · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 0.40
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Tondela | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Estrela | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Alverca | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Estoril | D 2–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Benfica | L 0–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 5 of 21 · 0.71 per game | 10 of 21 · 1.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Tondela | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Tondela | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tondela | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 7.50 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 5.60 | 5.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Tondela | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 7.50 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 5.60 | 5.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso Portugal · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.00league 5.12
Red cards0.50league 0.26
Cards 5+50%league 63%
Fouls35.0league 27.8
Penalties0.00league 0.46
Home wins100%league 37%
TondelaNo previous matches with this referee.
GuimaraesNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tondela10 games · scored 6 · conceded 19
1
0-15
3
16-30
7
31-45
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 6 · conceded 19
1
0-15
3
16-30
7
31-45
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
