Tondela vs Moreirense – 11 May 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 33 Mon, May 11 · 20:15 Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela

Tondela 17th · 25 pts · 32 played DLLDW

2–0Full time

Moreirense 8th · 42 pts · 32 played LDWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Moreirense were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Tondela. Tondela had 8.2 days of rest, Moreirense 9.2 and had to travel 99 km.

Away travel99 kmRest days8.2 · 9.2Matches / 14d2 · 1

Tondela39%

Draw30%

Moreirense31%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.07

Tondela33%

Draw27%

Moreirense39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.40

Tondela39%

Draw30%

Moreirense31%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.07

Tondela32%

Draw30%

Moreirense38%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.20

Tondela40%

Draw29%

Moreirense32%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.15

Over 2.5 40% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Tondela)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalRicardo Baixinho

Cards per match 7.1
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 37

Team strength

Tondela

Moreirense

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 25

16 AttackIn forecast 17

29 DefenceIn forecast 27

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tondela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tondela

Moreirense

0.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.16

1.63 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.47

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 0.88

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.28

44% Scored inContext 72%

19% Clean sheetsContext 25%

9.88 ShotsContext 8.41

3.32 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29

33% On target shareContext 38%

6.26 Shots in the boxContext 4.97

61% Box shareContext 57%

8% ConversionContext 14%

2.75 OffsidesContext 1.64

12.94 Shots allowedContext 12.63

4.91 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.61

3.42 BlocksContext 3.42

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

73% Save rateContext 67%

44% PossessionIn forecast 49%

328 PassesContext 413

260 Accurate passesContext 342

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.73

14.00 FoulsContext 13.72

12.13 Fouls sufferedContext 14.88

2.63 Yellow cardsContext 2.53

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 0.70

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.10

50% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.40 ShotsContext 7.50

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.90

34% On target shareContext 39%

6.44 Shots in the boxContext 4.67

62% Box shareContext 57%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.20

13.40 Shots allowedContext 12.70

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.60 BlocksContext 3.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

70% Save rateContext 68%

47% PossessionIn forecast 46%

364 PassesContext 400

291 Accurate passesContext 329

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.74

13.90 FoulsContext 12.90

14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 14.20

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tondela

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km739 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Moreirense

Rest9.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel99 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tondela	Moreirense
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 May	9.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	99 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	739 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 5	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	4.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tondela Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31Bernardo Fontes(G)

27Rodrigo Conceição 4Christian Marques 44João Silva 48Tiago Manso

32Juan Rodríguez 97Cicero

90M. Aïko 79Hugo Félix 7Pedro Henryque

16Rony Lopes

Moreirense Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22Caio Secco(G)

27Kiko 26Maracás 4Kevyn Monteiro 70Fabiano

25Afonso Assis 8M. Stjepanović

10Kiko Bondoso 23N. John 2Diogo Travassos

11Alan

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tondela Absences are shown before kick-off

Moreirense Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tondela+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Moreirense+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Tondela · Home 0.63points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 1-7-8
Scored: 0.69
Conceded: 1.31

Moreirense · Away 1.00points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 4-4-8
Scored: 1.06
Conceded: 1.63

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Tondela	Moreirense
Casa Pia	W 1–0 AL 1–2 H	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Sporting CP	D 2–2 AL 0–3 H	L 0–3 HL 0–3 A
Nacional	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A	D 1–1 HL 2–3 A
FC Porto	L 0–2 AL 0–2 H	L 0–3 AL 1–2 H
GIL Vicente	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A	L 1–2 HL 0–2 A
Guimaraes	L 0–5 AL 0–1 H	L 0–1 AW 2–0 H
AVS	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A	W 2–0 A
Rio Ave	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	W 2–1 AW 3–1 H
Santa Clara	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A
Estrela	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	W 3–2 HD 0–0 A
Alverca	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H
Estoril	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	W 1–0 HD 3–3 A
Benfica	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A	L 1–4 AL 0–4 H
Famalicao	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
SC Braga	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Arouca	W 3–1 H	L 0–1 HW 2–0 A
Points	25 of 93 · 0.81 per game	39 of 93 · 1.26 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Tondela wins0 draws1 Moreirense wins

Goals per game0.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

11 Jan 2026Moreirense1–0Tondela

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Tondela	Moreirense	Forecast
Scored per game	0.75	1.16
Conceded per game	1.63	1.47
Match goals	2.38	2.63	2.29
Over 1.5	66%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	53%	40%
Over 3.5	28%	22%
Both teams scored	34%	50%	47%
Clean sheets	19%	25%
Failed to score	56%	28%
Games	32	32

	Tondela	Moreirense	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	0.80
Conceded per game	1.60	1.70
Match goals	2.50	2.50	2.29
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	40%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	47%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tondela	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	3.83
Corners conceded	5.59	4.59
Match total	9.34	8.42	9.36
Over 8.5	56% 18/32	48% 14/29
Over 9.5	47% 15/32	38% 11/29
Over 10.5	38% 12/32	10% 3/29
Cards
Cards	2.69	2.63
Opponent cards	2.44	2.13
Match total	5.13	4.76	5.11
Over 3.5	69% 22/32	63% 20/32
Over 4.5	53% 17/32	47% 15/32

	Tondela	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	3.11
Corners conceded	5.60	5.44
Match total	9.40	8.55	9.36
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.20
Opponent cards	3.10	2.40
Match total	5.70	4.60	5.11
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ricardo Baixinho Portugal · 37 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards6.57league 4.83

Red cards0.51league 0.24

Cards 5+78%league 58%

Fouls30.9league 26.8

Penalties0.35league 0.43

Home wins41%league 41%

Tondela1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.7.0 · 6.0 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

L15 Dec 25A · Nacional1–37

Moreirense5 with this referee

Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.6 Pens for · against1 · 0

W16 Feb 26A · Rio Ave2–13
W16 Mar 25H · Boavista1–04
W8 Nov 24H · GIL Vicente3–22
D7 Apr 24H · Estrela2–23
L8 Jan 24H · Casa Pia1–42

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.