Tondela vs Sporting CP – 26 Oct 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 9 Sun, Oct 26 · 18:00 Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela

Tondela 17th · 5 pts · 8 played DLDWL

0–3Full time

Sporting CP 3rd · 19 pts · 8 played LWWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sporting CP were clear favourites.

Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 18). Tondela had 21.1 days of rest, Sporting CP 21 and had to travel 219 km.

Away travel219 kmRest days21.1 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0

Tondela11%

Draw19%

Sporting CP71%

Expected goals 0.75 – 2.23

Tondela11%

Draw18%

Sporting CP71%

Expected goals 0.79 – 2.28

Tondela11%

Draw19%

Sporting CP71%

Expected goals 0.75 – 2.23

Tondela8%

Draw16%

Sporting CP77%

Expected goals 0.67 – 2.49

Tondela11%

Draw18%

Sporting CP71%

Expected goals 0.79 – 2.28

Over 2.5 57% Both score 48% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Tondela)

No weather data yet

RefereeJosé Bessa

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 22

Team strength

Tondela

Sporting CP

18 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

16 AttackIn forecast 75

29 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tondela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sporting CP

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tondela

Sporting CP

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.63

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 2.27

1.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.69

-0.66 Goals minus xGContext +0.23

25% Scored inContext 100%

13% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.88 ShotsContext 17.88

4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

36% On target shareContext 36%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.88

59% Box shareContext 66%

4% ConversionContext 14%

3.38 OffsidesContext 2.43

12.50 Shots allowedContext 7.38

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50

3.29 BlocksContext 2.13

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.14

71% Save rateContext 79%

46% PossessionIn forecast 60%

327 PassesContext 511

265 Accurate passesContext 441

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.73 Team ratingContext 7.13

13.88 FoulsContext 12.00

12.38 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

2.75 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 2.15

1.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.70

-0.66 Goals minus xGContext +0.35

25% Scored inContext 100%

13% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.88 ShotsContext 15.90

4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90

36% On target shareContext 37%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

59% Box shareContext 62%

4% ConversionContext 16%

3.38 OffsidesContext 2.57

12.50 Shots allowedContext 8.20

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.80

3.29 BlocksContext 2.40

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.11

71% Save rateContext 70%

46% PossessionIn forecast 58%

327 PassesContext 503

265 Accurate passesContext 435

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.73 Team ratingContext 7.06

13.88 FoulsContext 11.90

12.38 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30

2.75 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 8 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tondela

Rest21.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sporting CP

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel219 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tondela	Sporting CP
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	21.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct	21Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	219 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tondela Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31Bernardo Fontes(G)

60N. Maviram 20Brayan Medina 4Christian Marques 2Bebeto

15S. Sithole 97Cicero

17Ivan Cavaleiro 16Rony Lopes 7Pedro Henryque

29J. Siebatcheu

Sporting CP Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Rui Silva(G)

20M. Araújo 25G. Inácio 26O. Diomande 22Iván Fresneda

52João Simões 42M. Hjulmand

8Pote 17Trincão 10Geny Catamo

97L. Suárez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tondela Absences are shown before kick-off

Sporting CP Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tondela+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sporting CP+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Tondela · Home 0.67points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.00

Sporting CP · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 4-0-0
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Tondela	Sporting CP
Estoril	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 A
Famalicao	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 A
SC Braga	L 0–3 A	D 1–1 H
Points	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Tondela	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	2.50
Conceded per game	1.75	0.63
Match goals	2.25	3.13	2.98
Over 1.5	63%	88%
Over 2.5	63%	63%	57%
Over 3.5	13%	25%
Both teams scored	25%	50%	48%
Clean sheets	13%	50%
Failed to score	75%	0%
Games	8	8

	Tondela	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	2.50
Conceded per game	1.75	0.63
Match goals	2.25	3.13	2.98
Over 1.5	63%	88%
Over 2.5	63%	63%	57%
Over 3.5	13%	25%
Both teams scored	25%	50%	48%
Clean sheets	13%	50%
Failed to score	75%	0%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tondela	Sporting CP	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	6.25
Corners conceded	5.50	3.25
Match total	9.25	9.50	9.31
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.88	2.13
Opponent cards	2.38	3.38
Match total	5.26	5.51	5.40
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	75% 6/8

	Tondela	Sporting CP	League
Corners
Corners won	3.75	5.40
Corners conceded	5.50	3.50
Match total	9.25	8.90	9.31
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.88	2.20
Opponent cards	2.38	3.00
Match total	5.26	5.20	5.40
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	38% 3/8	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · José Bessa 22 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.68league 5.22

Red cards0.32league 0.27

Cards 5+55%league 65%

Fouls24.4league 27.8

Penalties0.18league 0.46

Home wins55%league 37%

Tondela

No previous matches with this referee.

Sporting CP

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.