Torino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were slight favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 37). Torino had 8.3 days of rest, AC Milan 9 and had to travel 125 km.
Away travel125 kmRest days8.3 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Torino24%
Draw27%
AC Milan49%
Torino25%
Draw26%
AC Milan50%
Torino24%
Draw27%
AC Milan48%
Torino19%
Draw25%
AC Milan56%
Torino24%
Draw26%
AC Milan50%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
RefereeDaniele Chiffi
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 69
Team strength
Torino
AC Milan
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
39
AttackIn forecast
72
47
DefenceIn forecast
69
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TorinoAC Milan
0.92
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.46
1.77
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.69
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
62%
Scored inContext
92%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
54%
11.46
ShotsContext
12.92
4.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.46
36%
On target shareContext
35%
7.38
Shots in the boxContext
8.62
65%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.23
Shots allowedContext
11.31
4.15
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
3.69
BlocksContext
3.58
2.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.45
61%
Save rateContext
88%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
353
PassesContext
467
283
Accurate passesContext
409
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.99
13.31
FoulsContext
9.77
10.85
Fouls sufferedContext
11.38
1.77
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.20
ShotsContext
11.80
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
34%
On target shareContext
37%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
64%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.70
Shots allowedContext
13.10
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.40
BlocksContext
3.70
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
58%
Save rateContext
92%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
371
PassesContext
465
297
Accurate passesContext
406
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.68
Team ratingContext
7.01
13.00
FoulsContext
9.30
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Torino
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,006 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
AC Milan
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel125 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Torino |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.3Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 9Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 125 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,006 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 5.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Torino
Confirmed XI
81F. Israel(G)
23Saúl Coco
13G. Maripán
61A. Tamèze
20V. Lazaro
14F. Anjorin
10N. Vlašić
32K. Asllani
16M. Pedersen
19C. Adams
91D. Zapata
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
23O. Tomori
33D. Bartesaghi
12A. Rabiot
14L. Modrić
8R. Loftus-Cheek
56A. Saelemaekers
10Rafael Leão
18C. Nkunku
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Torino
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AC Milan
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Torino-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- AC Milan+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Torino · Home
1.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.83
AC Milan · Away
2.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | Torino | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Juventus | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Bologna | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Napoli | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Lazio | D 3–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Parma | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Fiorentina | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Inter | L 0–5 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 11 of 33 · 1.00 per game | 25 of 33 · 2.27 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Torino wins2 draws3 AC Milan wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.38
Over 2.563%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 38%
- 22 Feb 2025Torino2–1AC Milan
- 17 Aug 2024AC Milan2–2Torino
- 18 May 2024Torino3–1AC Milan
- 26 Aug 2023AC Milan4–1Torino
- 10 Feb 2023AC Milan1–0Torino
- 30 Oct 2022Torino2–1AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Torino | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.92 | 1.46 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.77 | 0.69 | |
| Match goals | 2.69 | 2.15 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 46% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 46% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 54% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 8% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Torino | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.20 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Torino | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.82 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.82 | 8.82 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 5/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 4/11 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.85 | 1.77 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.54 | 2.23 | |
| Match total | 3.39 | 4.00 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 8/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 4/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Torino | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 2.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 8.13 | 8.51 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.10 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Chiffi 69 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.74league 3.88
Red cards0.23league 0.15
Cards 5+39%league 38%
Fouls22.7league 26.0
Penalties0.19league 0.33
Home wins43%league 40%
Torino6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W15 Mar 25H · Empoli1–01
- D4 Feb 24H · Salernitana0–02
- W3 Sep 23H · Genoa1–02
- L28 Feb 23A · Juventus2–42
- L28 Nov 21A · AS Roma0–11
AC Milan11 with this referee
Record9-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- W28 Sep 25H · Napoli2–12
- D2 Feb 25H · Inter1–10
- D23 Nov 24H · Juventus0–03
- W19 Oct 24H · Udinese1–03
- W23 Apr 23H · Lecce2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Torino13 games · scored 12 · conceded 23
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
AC Milan13 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
4
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
