Torino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atalanta were slight favourites.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 41). Absences weigh more on Atalanta. Torino had 7.1 days of rest, Atalanta 7 and had to travel 170 km.
Away travel170 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Torino28%
Draw28%
Atalanta43%
Torino27%
Draw26%
Atalanta46%
Torino26%
Draw28%
Atalanta46%
Torino23%
Draw27%
Atalanta51%
Torino29%
Draw27%
Atalanta44%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 53
Team strength
Torino
Atalanta
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
70
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
39
AttackIn forecast
48
47
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TorinoAtalanta
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.63
-0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
33%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.00
ShotsContext
17.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
44%
On target shareContext
33%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.67
67%
Box shareContext
69%
4%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
3.50
19.33
Shots allowedContext
10.00
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
4.67
BlocksContext
3.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
67%
Save rateContext
75%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
296
PassesContext
467
236
Accurate passesContext
391
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.68
Team ratingContext
7.04
14.33
FoulsContext
12.00
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
30%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.10
ShotsContext
14.30
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
32%
On target shareContext
32%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.56
61%
Box shareContext
73%
4%
ConversionContext
13%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.50
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.11
BlocksContext
3.67
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
76%
Save rateContext
74%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
359
PassesContext
459
294
Accurate passesContext
385
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.40
FoulsContext
10.90
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
8.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Torino
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,051 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Atalanta
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel170 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Torino |
Atalanta |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 170 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,051 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Torino
Confirmed XI
81F. Israel(G)
44A. Ismajli
13G. Maripán
23Saúl Coco
34C. Biraghi
32K. Asllani
8I. Ilić
20V. Lazaro
10N. Vlašić
7Z. Aboukhlal
18G. Simeone
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
19B. Djimsiti
4I. Hien
3K. Kossounou
59N. Zalewski
8M. Pašalić
15M. de Roon
77D. Zappacosta
7K. Sulemana
10L. Samardžić
90N. Krstović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Torino
Absences are shown before kick-off
Atalanta
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Torino+2.0 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Atalanta-2.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Torino · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Atalanta · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Torino wins2 draws4 Atalanta wins
Goals per game1.63 – 2.00
Over 2.588%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 13%
- 1 Feb 2025Atalanta1–1Torino
- 25 Aug 2024Torino2–1Atalanta
- 26 May 2024Atalanta3–0Torino
- 4 Dec 2023Torino3–0Atalanta
- 29 Apr 2023Torino1–2Atalanta
- 1 Sep 2022Atalanta3–1Torino
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Torino | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Torino | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Torino | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 10.66 | 9.00 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 0.67 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.34 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Torino | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 10.44 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 1.70 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.83league 3.74
Red cards0.21league 0.11
Cards 5+58%league 40%
Fouls24.3league 26.0
Penalties0.13league 0.20
Home wins42%league 40%
Torino7 with this referee
Record2-3-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D15 Sep 24H · Lecce0–01
- W16 Mar 24A · Udinese2–02
- W26 Jan 24A · Cagliari2–14
- L27 Nov 23A · Bologna0–24
- L8 Apr 23H · AS Roma0–13
Atalanta5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.3.8 · 2.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 Jan 25H · Napoli2–34
- L28 Feb 24A · Inter0–46
- W11 Feb 24A · Genoa4–14
- L11 Mar 23A · Napoli0–22
- D11 Sep 22H · Cremonese1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Torino3 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Atalanta3 games · scored 6 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 4 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
