Torino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Torino. Torino had 7.9 days of rest, Bologna 7.2 and had to travel 295 km.
Away travel295 kmRest days7.9 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Torino37%
Draw29%
Bologna34%
Torino35%
Draw27%
Bologna38%
Torino35%
Draw29%
Bologna35%
Torino30%
Draw29%
Bologna41%
Torino38%
Draw27%
Bologna34%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFrancesco Fourneau
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 44
Team strength
Torino
Bologna
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
39
AttackIn forecast
35
47
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TorinoBologna
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
67%
Scored inContext
71%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.83
ShotsContext
12.92
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.87
36%
On target shareContext
29%
7.75
Shots in the boxContext
8.26
66%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.42
Shots allowedContext
10.25
4.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.83
BlocksContext
2.95
2.59
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.95
60%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
362
PassesContext
424
287
Accurate passesContext
351
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.92
FoulsContext
13.58
10.58
Fouls sufferedContext
14.17
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.70
ShotsContext
14.60
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
35%
On target shareContext
27%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.89
69%
Box shareContext
63%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.86
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.20
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.80
BlocksContext
2.63
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
61%
Save rateContext
61%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
380
PassesContext
429
298
Accurate passesContext
357
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.74
14.50
FoulsContext
13.00
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Torino
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km634 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bologna
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel295 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Torino |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 7.2Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 295 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 634 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
23Saúl Coco
13G. Maripán
35L. Marianucci
7Z. Aboukhlal
66G. Gineitis
4M. Prati
10N. Vlašić
16M. Pedersen
18G. Simeone
19C. Adams
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
33Juan Miranda
26J. Lucumí
41M. Vitík
17João Mário
8R. Freuler
6N. Moro
11J. Rowe
23S. Sohm
10F. Bernardeschi
9S. Castro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Torino
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Torino+1.4 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Bologna-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Torino · Home
1.17points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Bologna · Away
1.33points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-4
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.42
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Torino | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Lecce | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Como | L 0–6 AL 1–5 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Udinese | L 1–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Verona | W 3–0 A | W 3–2 A |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Sassuolo | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 H |
| AC Milan | L 2–3 H | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Juventus | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| Genoa | W 2–1 H | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Napoli | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Lazio | D 3–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Parma | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–5 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 26 of 69 · 1.13 per game | 29 of 69 · 1.26 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Torino wins3 draws4 Bologna wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.11
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets44% · 56%
- 29 Oct 2025Bologna0–0Torino
- 14 Feb 2025Bologna3–2Torino
- 21 Dec 2024Torino0–2Bologna
- 3 May 2024Torino0–0Bologna
- 27 Nov 2023Bologna2–0Torino
- 6 Mar 2023Torino1–0Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Torino | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.63 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 50% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 29% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Torino | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Torino | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.77 | 4.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.59 | 4.13 | |
| Match total | 8.36 | 8.70 | 8.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 41% 9/22 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 9/22 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 8/22 | 26% 6/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.46 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 3.38 | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 12/24 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 5/24 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Torino | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 9.55 | 8.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francesco Fourneau Italy · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.43league 3.82
Red cards0.11league 0.19
Cards 5+55%league 37%
Fouls26.0league 25.4
Penalties0.30league 0.32
Home wins45%league 38%
Torino6 with this referee
Record1-4-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 Jan 26A · Atalanta0–22
- D8 Mar 25A · Parma2–22
- D29 Dec 24A · Udinese2–20
- D9 Oct 22H · Empoli1–12
- D23 Jan 22H · Sassuolo1–13
Bologna4 with this referee
Record1-3-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D28 Sep 25A · Lecce2–22
- D9 Feb 25A · Lecce0–02
- W29 Oct 24A · Cagliari2–02
- D21 Sep 21H · Genoa2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Torino24 games · scored 24 · conceded 42
2
4
0-15
6
9
16-30
4
7
31-45
3
6
46-60
3
9
61-75
6
7
76-90
Bologna24 games · scored 32 · conceded 31
3
0-15
5
2
16-30
8
7
31-45
9
5
46-60
4
8
61-75
6
6
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
31-45
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
