Torino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Torino were slight favourites.
Torino were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 26). Absences weigh more on Cagliari. Torino had 6 days of rest, Cagliari 6.1 and had to travel 660 km.
Away travel660 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Torino52%
Draw26%
Cagliari22%
Torino52%
Draw25%
Cagliari23%
Torino50%
Draw27%
Cagliari23%
Torino45%
Draw28%
Cagliari28%
Torino54%
Draw24%
Cagliari22%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 74
Team strength
Torino
Cagliari
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
39
AttackIn forecast
31
47
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TorinoCagliari
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
69%
Scored inContext
69%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
11.44
ShotsContext
9.81
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.73
36%
On target shareContext
36%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
65%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.77
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.63
Shots allowedContext
12.94
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
3.56
BlocksContext
3.86
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.73
62%
Save rateContext
73%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
355
PassesContext
365
283
Accurate passesContext
293
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.81
FoulsContext
15.00
10.81
Fouls sufferedContext
15.06
1.69
Yellow cardsContext
2.56
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
80%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.40
ShotsContext
9.20
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
33%
On target shareContext
39%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.44
67%
Box shareContext
54%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.75
OffsidesContext
3.14
13.00
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.60
BlocksContext
2.89
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
67%
Save rateContext
66%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
355
PassesContext
378
279
Accurate passesContext
303
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.74
13.40
FoulsContext
15.10
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
15.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Torino
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km471 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cagliari
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel660 km1,441 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Torino |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Dec | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 660 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 471 km | 1,441 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
44A. Ismajli
13G. Maripán
61A. Tamèze
20V. Lazaro
32K. Asllani
66G. Gineitis
16M. Pedersen
10N. Vlašić
19C. Adams
18G. Simeone
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
6S. Luperto
14A. Deiola
28G. Zappa
3Riyad Idrissi
4L. Mazzitelli
16M. Prati
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
10G. Gaetano
9S. Kılıçsoy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Torino
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Torino+2.0 pp
- Draw-1.0 pp
- Cagliari-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Torino · Home
1.38points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-3
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.75
Cagliari · Away
0.75points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Torino | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Lecce | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Como | L 1–5 H | D 0–0 A |
| Juventus | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Bologna | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Genoa | W 2–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| Napoli | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lazio | D 3–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Parma | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Fiorentina | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Inter | L 0–5 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 17 of 42 · 1.21 per game | 13 of 42 · 0.93 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Torino wins2 draws2 Cagliari wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.17
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 24 Jan 2025Torino2–0Cagliari
- 20 Oct 2024Cagliari3–2Torino
- 26 Jan 2024Cagliari1–2Torino
- 21 Aug 2023Torino0–0Cagliari
- 27 Feb 2022Torino1–2Cagliari
- 6 Dec 2021Cagliari1–1Torino
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Torino | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.50 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 56% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 44% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 56% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 31% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Torino | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.80 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Torino | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.93 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 4.36 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.22 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 6/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 6/14 | 21% 3/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 5/14 | 14% 2/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 2.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.38 | 4.56 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 9/16 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 4/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Torino | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.11 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 5.00 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.35league 3.90
Red cards0.20league 0.17
Cards 5+28%league 39%
Fouls24.8league 26.0
Penalties0.22league 0.31
Home wins24%league 40%
Torino2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D11 Nov 23A · Monza1–12
- D10 Apr 22H · AC Milan0–02
Cagliari6 with this referee
Record1-3-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L28 Dec 24H · Inter0–30
- W19 May 24A · Sassuolo2–02
- D1 Apr 24H · Verona1–10
- D17 Sep 23H · Udinese0–02
- L15 May 22H · Inter1–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Torino16 games · scored 16 · conceded 26
1
2
0-15
3
7
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
2
4
76-90
Cagliari16 games · scored 17 · conceded 23
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
7
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
