Torino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Torino were slight favourites.
Torino were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 24). Torino had 4.8 days of rest, Cremonese 6.1 and had to travel 183 km.
Away travel183 kmRest days4.8 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Torino51%
Draw27%
Cremonese22%
Torino52%
Draw25%
Cremonese23%
Torino50%
Draw27%
Cremonese23%
Torino44%
Draw28%
Cremonese28%
Torino53%
Draw25%
Cremonese22%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLivio Marinelli
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 56
Team strength
Torino
Cremonese
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
39
AttackIn forecast
16
47
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TorinoCremonese
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.21
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
64%
Scored inContext
79%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.21
ShotsContext
8.29
4.07
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.36
36%
On target shareContext
41%
7.14
Shots in the boxContext
5.23
64%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
1.77
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.43
Shots allowedContext
15.71
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.93
3.86
BlocksContext
4.38
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.08
60%
Save rateContext
78%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
350
PassesContext
363
280
Accurate passesContext
282
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.50
FoulsContext
12.07
10.57
Fouls sufferedContext
12.57
1.79
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.00
ShotsContext
9.20
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
38%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
64%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.43
13.50
Shots allowedContext
15.50
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.90
BlocksContext
4.11
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
59%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
363
PassesContext
351
289
Accurate passesContext
267
80%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.50
FoulsContext
12.40
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Torino
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,006 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Cremonese
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel183 km252 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Torino |
Cremonese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Dec | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 183 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,006 km | 252 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
23Saúl Coco
13G. Maripán
44A. Ismajli
20V. Lazaro
66G. Gineitis
32K. Asllani
16M. Pedersen
10N. Vlašić
19C. Adams
91D. Zapata
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
23F. Ceccherini
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
3G. Pezzella
27J. Vandeputte
38W. Bondo
32M. Payero
4T. Barbieri
10J. Vardy
90F. Bonazzoli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Torino
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cremonese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Torino+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Cremonese-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Torino · Home
1.14points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-3
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 2.00
Cremonese · Away
1.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | Torino | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | L 2–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Lecce | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Como | L 1–5 H | D 1–1 A |
| Juventus | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Bologna | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Genoa | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Parma | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 A | L 1–3 H |
| Inter | L 0–5 A | L 1–4 A |
| Points | 9 of 33 · 0.82 per game | 15 of 33 · 1.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Torino wins1 draws0 Cremonese wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 20 Feb 2023Torino2–2Cremonese
- 27 Aug 2022Cremonese1–2Torino
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Torino | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 1.21 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 43% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 64% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 21% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Torino | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Torino | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 3.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 6.29 | |
| Match total | 8.58 | 9.72 | 8.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 5/12 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 5/12 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 4/12 | 21% 3/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 2.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.36 | 3.93 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 8/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 4/14 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Torino | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 7.89 | 10.20 | 8.84 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.20 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Livio Marinelli Italy · 56 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.87
Red cards0.18league 0.15
Cards 5+41%league 38%
Fouls23.3league 25.9
Penalties0.32league 0.33
Home wins43%league 40%
Torino6 with this referee
Record4-2-0
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D19 Jan 25A · Fiorentina1–13
- D7 Dec 24A · Genoa0–01
- W20 Sep 24A · Verona3–21
- W12 May 24A · Verona2–12
- W16 Dec 23H · Empoli1–04
Cremonese2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L1 Apr 23H · Atalanta1–33
- D2 Oct 22A · Lecce1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Torino14 games · scored 14 · conceded 26
1
2
0-15
2
7
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
2
4
76-90
Cremonese14 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
6
1
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
