Torino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Torino were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Parma. Torino had 7 days of rest, Parma 5.2 and had to travel 210 km.
Away travel210 kmRest days7 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Torino39%
Draw31%
Parma30%
Torino42%
Draw27%
Parma31%
Torino38%
Draw31%
Parma31%
Torino33%
Draw31%
Parma36%
Torino41%
Draw29%
Parma31%
Over 2.5 37%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFabio Maresca
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 71
Team strength
Torino
Parma
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
39
AttackIn forecast
20
47
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TorinoParma
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
68%
Scored inContext
54%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
11.36
ShotsContext
11.07
4.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.16
37%
On target shareContext
26%
7.36
Shots in the boxContext
6.46
65%
Box shareContext
55%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.92
OffsidesContext
1.63
13.43
Shots allowedContext
13.96
4.32
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.14
3.82
BlocksContext
4.22
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.12
62%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
366
PassesContext
361
291
Accurate passesContext
291
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.75
FoulsContext
10.64
10.25
Fouls sufferedContext
13.46
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.57
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.50
ShotsContext
11.40
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
37%
On target shareContext
23%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
67%
Box shareContext
45%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.30
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.60
BlocksContext
4.20
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
60%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
369
PassesContext
408
294
Accurate passesContext
343
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.79
14.30
FoulsContext
11.70
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Torino
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,423 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Parma
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel210 km270 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Torino |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Mar | 5.2Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 210 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,423 km | 270 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
77E. Ebosse
44A. Ismajli
23Saúl Coco
33Rafael Obrador
66G. Gineitis
6E. İlkhan
16M. Pedersen
10N. Vlašić
19C. Adams
18G. Simeone
Parma
Confirmed XI
31Z. Suzuki(G)
39A. Circati
37Mariano Troilo
15E. Delprato
16L. Keita
14E. Valeri
22O. Sørensen
24C. Ordoñez
25B. Cremaschi
7Gabriel Strefezza
9Mateo Pellegrino
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Torino
Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Torino+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Parma-1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Torino · Home
1.21points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-7
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 1.57
Parma · Away
1.43points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-4
- Scored
- 0.64
- Conceded
- 0.93
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Torino | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Lazio | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Genoa | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Bologna | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 AL 1–3 H |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Lecce | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Como | L 0–6 AL 1–5 H | D 0–0 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H |
| Udinese | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Verona | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Cagliari | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Sassuolo | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| AC Milan | L 2–3 H | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Juventus | D 0–0 A | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Inter | L 0–5 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 30 of 81 · 1.11 per game | 31 of 81 · 1.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Torino wins2 draws1 Parma wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 29 Sep 2025Parma2–1Torino
- 8 Mar 2025Parma2–2Torino
- 5 Jan 2025Torino0–0Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Torino | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 1.86 | 2.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 32% | 37% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 39% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 46% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Torino | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 1.90 | 2.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 37% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Torino | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.77 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.77 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.54 | 8.38 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 11/26 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 11/26 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 10/26 | 29% 7/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.07 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.32 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 3.39 | 3.92 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 14/28 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 6/28 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Torino | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 8.38 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.00 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Maresca Italy · 71 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.01league 3.76
Red cards0.17league 0.19
Cards 5+65%league 36%
Fouls25.0league 25.2
Penalties0.18league 0.31
Home wins37%league 39%
Torino3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L7 Jan 26H · Udinese1–21
- D17 Aug 24A · AC Milan2–25
- D13 Apr 24H · Juventus0–03
Parma1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L1 Mar 25A · Udinese0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Torino28 games · scored 28 · conceded 49
2
5
0-15
7
10
16-30
4
8
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
11
61-75
7
8
76-90
Parma28 games · scored 20 · conceded 32
2
6
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
7
61-75
7
8
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 8 · conceded 21
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
4
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
