Torino vs Verona – 11 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 32 Sat, Apr 11 · 14:00 Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino

Torino 12th · 36 pts · 31 played WLWLW

2–1Full time

Verona 19th · 18 pts · 31 played LWLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Torino were slight favourites.

Torino were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Verona. Torino had 5.9 days of rest, Verona 6.9 and had to travel 262 km.

Away travel262 kmRest days5.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Torino52%

Draw28%

Verona19%

Expected goals 1.43 – 0.75

Torino59%

Draw23%

Verona18%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.94

Torino52%

Draw29%

Verona19%

Expected goals 1.41 – 0.76

Torino46%

Draw30%

Verona24%

Expected goals 1.27 – 0.84

Torino55%

Draw26%

Verona19%

Expected goals 1.62 – 0.86

Over 2.5 37% Both score 41% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

No weather data yet

RefereeKevin Bonacina

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 11

Team strength

Torino

Verona

36 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

39 AttackIn forecast 15

47 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Torino

Verona

1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71

1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.71

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 0.96

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

71% Scored inContext 48%

35% Clean sheetsContext 16%

11.74 ShotsContext 10.87

4.23 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.83

36% On target shareContext 34%

7.48 Shots in the boxContext 6.13

64% Box shareContext 55%

10% ConversionContext 7%

1.96 OffsidesContext 2.20

12.97 Shots allowedContext 13.03

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.71 BlocksContext 4.03

2.79 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.66

61% Save rateContext 60%

44% PossessionIn forecast 41%

366 PassesContext 327

293 Accurate passesContext 246

80% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.64

13.68 FoulsContext 15.55

10.29 Fouls sufferedContext 8.87

1.87 Yellow cardsContext 2.23

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 0.80

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.30

80% Scored inContext 40%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.40 ShotsContext 9.70

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

34% On target shareContext 28%

7.30 Shots in the boxContext 5.00

64% Box shareContext 50%

12% ConversionContext 5%

2.56 OffsidesContext 1.86

13.10 Shots allowedContext 13.10

5.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.00 BlocksContext 3.90

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

59% Save rateContext 52%

43% PossessionIn forecast 43%

373 PassesContext 347

304 Accurate passesContext 269

82% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.62

13.80 FoulsContext 14.40

9.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Torino

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km527 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Verona

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel262 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Torino	Verona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 5 Apr	6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	262 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	527 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Torino Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1A. Paleari(G)

77E. Ebosse 44A. Ismajli 23Saúl Coco

33Rafael Obrador 66G. Gineitis 22C. Casadei 16M. Pedersen

10N. Vlašić

19C. Adams 18G. Simeone

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

3M. Frese 5A. Edmundsson 15V. Nelsson

7R. Belghali 24A. Bernede 63R. Gagliardini 11J. Akpa Akpro 2D. Oyegoke

18K. Bowie 21A. Harroui

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Torino Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Verona Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Torino+0.5 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Verona-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Torino · Home 1.33points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 6-2-7
Scored: 1.27
Conceded: 1.53

Verona · Away 0.69points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-9
Scored: 0.63
Conceded: 1.81

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Torino	Verona
Pisa	W 1–0 AD 2–2 H	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A
AC Milan	L 2–3 AL 2–3 H	L 0–3 A
Parma	W 4–1 HL 1–2 A	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Napoli	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A
Lazio	W 2–0 HD 3–3 A	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A
Genoa	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A
Bologna	L 1–2 HD 0–0 A	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H
Fiorentina	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H	L 0–1 HW 2–1 A
Lecce	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A	D 0–0 A
Como	L 0–6 AL 1–5 H	L 1–3 A
AS Roma	L 0–2 HW 1–0 A	L 0–2 A
Atalanta	L 0–2 AL 0–3 H	L 0–1 AW 3–1 H
Udinese	L 1–2 H	L 1–3 HD 1–1 A
Cagliari	L 1–2 H	L 0–4 AD 2–2 H
Sassuolo	W 1–0 A	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H
Cremonese	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H
Juventus	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 H
Inter	L 0–5 A	L 1–2 H
Points	33 of 90 · 1.10 per game	18 of 90 · 0.60 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

6 Torino wins3 draws0 Verona wins

Goals per game1.44 – 0.56 Over 2.533% Both scored44% Clean sheets56% · 11%

4 Jan 2026Verona0–3Torino
6 Apr 2025Torino1–1Verona
20 Sep 2024Verona2–3Torino
12 May 2024Verona1–2Torino
2 Oct 2023Torino0–0Verona
14 May 2023Verona0–1Torino

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Torino	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.13	0.71
Conceded per game	1.71	1.71
Match goals	2.84	2.42	2.18
Over 1.5	71%	71%
Over 2.5	61%	58%	37%
Over 3.5	29%	26%
Both teams scored	45%	48%	41%
Clean sheets	35%	16%
Failed to score	29%	52%
Games	31	31

	Torino	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.50
Conceded per game	1.90	1.90
Match goals	3.30	2.40	2.18
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	37%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	41%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	20%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Torino	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	3.72	3.83
Corners conceded	4.66	4.50
Match total	8.38	8.33	8.64
Over 8.5	45% 13/29	53% 16/30
Over 9.5	38% 11/29	30% 9/30
Over 10.5	34% 10/29	20% 6/30
Cards
Cards	1.94	2.35
Opponent cards	1.42	1.68
Match total	3.36	4.03	3.90
Over 3.5	52% 16/31	52% 16/31
Over 4.5	19% 6/31	39% 12/31

	Torino	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	3.30	4.22
Corners conceded	5.30	4.33
Match total	8.60	8.55	8.64
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.50
Opponent cards	1.40	1.60
Match total	3.60	4.10	3.90
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Kevin Bonacina 11 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.91league 3.72

Red cards0.27league 0.19

Cards 5+18%league 35%

Fouls24.4league 25.0

Penalties0.27league 0.30

Home wins36%league 40%

Torino5 with this referee

Record3-1-1 Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.4 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds1

L24 Nov 25H · Como1–50
W26 Oct 25H · Genoa2–12
D6 Apr 25H · Verona1–12
W24 Jan 25H · Cagliari2–00
W13 Dec 24A · Empoli1–03

Verona2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L31 Jan 26A · Cagliari0–42
D6 Apr 25A · Torino1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.