Torreense
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Torreense24.9%fair odds 4.02
Draw24.4%fair odds 4.09
Sunderland50.7%fair odds 1.97
Expected goals1.19 – 1.78total 2.97
Likeliest score1–111.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sunderland
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Torreense ↓ · Sunderland → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Torreense goals, columns Sunderland goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%8.74
- 1–29.7%10.33
- 0–18.6%11.67
- 0–28.1%12.28
- 2–16.5%15.49
- 2–25.7%17.40
- 1–35.7%17.41
- 0–05.7%17.51
- 1–05.5%18.10
- 0–34.8%20.68
Winning margin
3.2%
Torreense by 3+
fair 31.32
7.0%
Torreense by 2
fair 14.37
14.7%
Torreense by 1
fair 6.80
24.4%
Draw
fair 4.09
22.3%
Sunderland by 1
fair 4.48
15.6%
Sunderland by 2
fair 6.39
12.7%
Sunderland by 3+
fair 7.86
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Torreense goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
Sunderland goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torreense win | 24.9% | 24.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 24.4% | 24.4% | +0.1 pp |
| Sunderland win | 50.7% | 50.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 57.2% | -0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.4% | 58.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Expected goals Torreense | 1.19 | 1.19 | -0.00 |
| Expected goals Sunderland | 1.78 | 1.79 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Torreense win24.9%4.02
- Draw24.4%4.09
- Sunderland win50.7%1.97
- Double chance Torreense or draw49.3%2.03
- Double chance Torreense or Sunderland75.6%1.32
- Double chance Sunderland or draw75.1%1.33
- Draw no bet Torreense32.9%3.04
- Draw no bet Sunderland67.1%1.49
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.2%1.25
- Over 2.557.0%1.75
- Over 3.534.6%2.89
- Over 4.518.0%5.57
- Under 1.519.8%5.05
- Under 2.543.0%2.32
- Under 3.565.4%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes58.4%1.71
- No41.6%2.40
- Yes and over 2.546.9%2.13
- Torreense win and yes13.7%7.29
- Draw and yes18.7%5.34
- Sunderland win and yes25.9%3.86
Team goals
- Torreense over 0.569.5%1.44
- Torreense over 1.533.3%3.00
- Torreense over 2.511.8%8.48
- Sunderland over 0.583.2%1.20
- Sunderland over 1.553.2%1.88
- Sunderland over 2.526.4%3.78
- Torreense clean sheet16.8%5.94
- Sunderland clean sheet30.5%3.28
- Torreense win to nil11.1%8.98
- Sunderland win to nil24.8%4.04
Handicap
- Torreense −1.510.2%9.85
- Torreense −2.53.2%31.32
- Sunderland +1.589.8%1.11
- Sunderland +2.596.8%1.03
- Sunderland −1.528.4%3.52
- Torreense +1.571.6%1.40
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored18
Favourite won61.1%
Avg chance given to result44.8%
1X2 Brier0.505
Over 2.5 called right61.1%
BTTS called right38.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 39.1% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 6 | 44.6% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 54.9% | 80.0% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 65.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 18 of 18 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5048 | 0.5646 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.8% | 44.3% |
| Favourite won | 61.1% | 61.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 18 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.