Torreense vs Sunderland – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 17:45 Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Leiria

Torreense 13th · 3 pts · 1 played W

1–2Full time

Sunderland 15th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sunderland were slight favourites.

Sunderland were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Sunderland. Sunderland were without T. Meunier and D. Ballard. Torreense had 27.9 days of rest, Sunderland 5.1 and had to travel 1,774 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,774 kmRest days27.9 · 5.1Matches / 14d0 · 1

Torreense25%

Draw23%

Sunderland51%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.78

Torreense27%

Draw25%

Sunderland48%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.59

Torreense24%

Draw23%

Sunderland54%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.84

Torreense20%

Draw21%

Sunderland59%

Expected goals 1.06 – 2.00

Torreense25%

Draw23%

Sunderland51%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.79

Over 2.5 57% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leiria)

23°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 63%

RefereeEnea Jorgji

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 17

Team strength

Torreense

Sunderland

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 57

26 Current StrengthIn forecast 57

21 AttackIn forecast 62

28 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext 48

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Torreense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sunderland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Torreense

Sunderland

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

— xGVia Att/Def 1.66

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

— Goals minus xGContext -0.46

33% Scored inContext 70%

33% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.67 ShotsContext 14.10

2.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

16% On target shareContext 32%

9.33 Shots in the boxContext 9.40

64% Box shareContext 65%

5% ConversionContext 9%

— OffsidesContext 2.22

14.00 Shots allowedContext 11.30

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33

3.33 BlocksContext 3.70

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.78

75% Save rateContext 53%

51% PossessionIn forecast 50%

355 PassesContext 417

280 Accurate passesContext 340

79% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.00 FoulsContext 12.20

14.33 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

2.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 3 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Torreense W

Rest27.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel82 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 63 · 3 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected

W17 SepA · Lillestrom2–11.1 xPts

Sunderland DLWLL

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,774 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 48 · 4 pts vs 4.2 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected

L10 OctH · Brighton0–21.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Manchester City3–50.6 xPts
W16 SepH · AZ Alkmaar1–01.7 xPts
L12 SepH · Arsenal0–20.8 xPts
D5 SepA · Brentford1–10.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Torreense	Sunderland
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	27.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep	5.1Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	82 km	1,774 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Torreense Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Lucas Paes(G)

23Javi Vázquez 4V. Feltes 5M. Diadie 45J. Mutombo

8Alejandro Alfaro 6A. Oudrhiri

19K. Zoabi 33João Marques 11Manu Pozo

27A. Abubakari

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Sunderland Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22R. Roefs(G)

6D. Methalie 15O. Alderete 13L. O'Nien 32T. Hume

27N. Sadiki 29Jules Ahoka

39M. Fofana 11C. Rigg 10N. Angulo

57T. Tuterov

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Torreense Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −0.7% · Defence line −0.8% of weighted minutes

MID N. Jatta Rotation 5.69 Att −0.7% Def −0.8%

Sunderland Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −36.6% · Defence line −19.7% of weighted minutes

DEF T. Meunier Starter 6.51 Def −8.8%
DEF D. Ballard Starter 6.69 Def −8.5%
ATT B. Brobbey Starter 6.69 Att −20.6%
MID H. Diarra Rotation 6.74 Att −3.2% Def −1.2%
ATT C. Talbi Rotation 6.63 Att −4.8%
ATT W. Isidor Rotation 6.58 Att −4.6%

+4 more with impact, 1 without recent minutes (no impact): A. Browne

Total impact vs full squads

Torreense+1.8 pp
Draw+0.5 pp
Sunderland-2.3 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Torreense · Home No home games yet this season.

Sunderland · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Torreense	Sunderland	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	1.00	2.97
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Torreense	Sunderland	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.20
Conceded per game	1.00	1.40
Match goals	3.00	2.60	2.97
Over 1.5	100%	70%
Over 2.5	100%	40%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	100%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	0%	30%
Games	1	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Torreense	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	9.00
Corners conceded	11.00	5.00
Match total	13.00	14.00	10.69
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	5.00	3.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	6.00	5.00	3.38
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Torreense	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	5.00
Corners conceded	6.67	4.10
Match total	12.00	9.10	10.69
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	67% 2/3	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.00
Opponent cards	3.33	2.20
Match total	6.33	4.20	3.38
Over 3.5	100% 3/3	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	100% 3/3	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Enea Jorgji 17 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.47league 3.28

Red cards0.35league 0.11

Cards 5+47%league 39%

Fouls25.7league 25.2

Penalties0.35league 0.17

Home wins59%league 44%

Torreense

No previous matches with this referee.

Sunderland

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.