Tottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 61). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Tottenham. Tottenham had 6.8 days of rest, Aston Villa 6.9 and had to travel 163 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel163 kmRest days6.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 3
Tottenham34%
Draw25%
Aston Villa41%
Tottenham29%
Draw25%
Aston Villa45%
Tottenham34%
Draw25%
Aston Villa41%
Tottenham27%
Draw24%
Aston Villa49%
Tottenham33%
Draw25%
Aston Villa41%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
21°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 20 km/h
- Humidity 63%
RefereeSamuel Barrott
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 89
Team strength
Tottenham
Aston Villa
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
82
56
AttackIn forecast
83
74
DefenceIn forecast
78
34
Form indexContext
45
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TottenhamAston Villa
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.25
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.92
-0.86
Goals minus xGContext
-0.59
0%
Scored inContext
25%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.75
ShotsContext
8.25
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
24%
On target shareContext
18%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.25
58%
Box shareContext
60%
0%
ConversionContext
3%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.25
Shots allowedContext
15.25
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
4.50
BlocksContext
2.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
69%
Save rateContext
68%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
537
PassesContext
424
476
Accurate passesContext
357
89%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.56
14.25
FoulsContext
11.00
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
60%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.00
ShotsContext
13.30
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
25%
On target shareContext
39%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
67%
Box shareContext
64%
6%
ConversionContext
14%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.63
11.70
Shots allowedContext
13.10
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.40
BlocksContext
3.43
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
67%
Save rateContext
71%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
476
PassesContext
409
411
Accurate passesContext
347
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.86
14.20
FoulsContext
11.00
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
LLDD
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km350 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 34 · 2 pts vs 3.9 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
Aston Villa
LLDWL
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel163 km1,109 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 45 · 4 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · -3.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 6.9Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 163 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 350 km | 1,109 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.2 | 21.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
31A. Kinský(G)
3A. Robertson
37M. van de Ven
6J. van Hecke
23Pedro Porro
16S. Tonali
30R. Bentancur
22O. Marmoush
18Mateus Fernandes
17Savinho
19D. Solanke
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
1Z. Suzuki(G)
13M. Ruggeri
5T. Mings
3V. Lindelöf
29A. Wan-Bissaka
35João Gomes
8B. Kamara
10E. Buendía
44J. Manzambi
7J. McGinn
11N. Jackson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Aston Villa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Tottenham+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Aston Villa+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Aston Villa · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Tottenham | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 13 meetings
4 Tottenham wins0 draws6 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game1.80 – 1.40
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 3 May 2026Aston Villa1–2Tottenham
- 10 Jan 2026Tottenham1–2Aston Villa
- 19 Oct 2025Tottenham1–2Aston Villa
- 16 May 2025Aston Villa2–0Tottenham
- 3 Nov 2024Tottenham4–1Aston Villa
- 10 Mar 2024Aston Villa0–4Tottenham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 0.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 1.25 | 2.00 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 25% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Tottenham | Aston Villa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.30 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.75 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 12.25 | 6.75 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 4/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 3/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.75 | 4.75 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Tottenham | Aston Villa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.90 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 11.80 | 8.90 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.80 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Samuel Barrott 89 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 3.83
Red cards0.06league 0.12
Cards 5+30%league 39%
Fouls20.1league 23.2
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins37%league 34%
Tottenham5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.3.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W3 May 26A · Aston Villa2–15
- L14 Dec 25A · Nottingham Forest0–33
- D8 Nov 25H · Manchester United2–25
- L22 Dec 24H · Liverpool3–61
- W10 Feb 24H · Brighton2–12
Aston Villa6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L3 May 26H · Tottenham1–22
- W19 Apr 26H · Sunderland4–31
- D21 Sep 25A · Sunderland1–11
- W15 Jan 25A · Everton1–01
- L14 Dec 24A · Nottingham Forest1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Tottenham4 games · scored 0 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Aston Villa3 games · scored 1 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 19 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
6
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
