Tottenham vs Liverpool – 20 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 17 Sat, Dec 20 · 17:30 Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Tottenham 13th · 22 pts · 16 played LLDWL

1–2Full time

Liverpool 8th · 26 pts · 16 played LWDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were slight favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 70). Tottenham had 6.1 days of rest, Liverpool 7.1 and had to travel 286 km.

Away travel286 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Tottenham29%

Draw25%

Liverpool46%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.65

Tottenham29%

Draw27%

Liverpool44%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.51

Tottenham29%

Draw25%

Liverpool46%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.67

Tottenham23%

Draw24%

Liverpool53%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.85

Tottenham29%

Draw27%

Liverpool44%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.50

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereeJohn Brooks

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 91

Team strength

Tottenham

Liverpool

70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 87

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

56 AttackIn forecast 85

74 DefenceIn forecast 84

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tottenham

Liverpool

1.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.63

1.31 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.61 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

81% Scored inContext 88%

31% Clean sheetsContext 31%

9.56 ShotsContext 15.63

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.38

34% On target shareContext 28%

7.07 Shots in the boxContext 10.13

70% Box shareContext 65%

16% ConversionContext 10%

2.07 OffsidesContext 2.38

11.88 Shots allowedContext 11.31

4.31 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43

2.60 BlocksContext 3.33

3.36 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.64

72% Save rateContext 60%

53% PossessionIn forecast 61%

426 PassesContext 531

354 Accurate passesContext 455

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.91

11.63 FoulsContext 10.50

9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.94

2.56 Yellow cardsContext 1.88

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

+0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.36

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.00 ShotsContext 16.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

40% On target shareContext 32%

7.89 Shots in the boxContext 10.20

73% Box shareContext 61%

18% ConversionContext 8%

1.44 OffsidesContext 3.13

11.90 Shots allowedContext 10.60

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

2.70 BlocksContext 3.20

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

63% Save rateContext 62%

51% PossessionIn forecast 56%

405 PassesContext 511

330 Accurate passesContext 443

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.90

11.80 FoulsContext 11.80

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tottenham

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km350 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Liverpool

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel286 km207 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tottenham	Liverpool
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Dec	7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	350 km	207 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 5	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tottenham Confirmed XI

4-2-2-2

1G. Vicario(G)

24D. Spence 37M. van de Ven 17C. Romero 23Pedro Porro

14A. Gray 30R. Bentancur

15L. Bergvall 20M. Kudus

39R. Kolo Muani 7X. Simons

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 12C. Bradley

17C. Jones 38R. Gravenberch

7F. Wirtz 10A. Mac Allister 8D. Szoboszlai

22H. Ekitiké

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tottenham Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Liverpool Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tottenham+0.3 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Liverpool-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Tottenham · Home 1.00points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-4
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.13

Liverpool · Away 1.25points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-4
Scored: 1.63
Conceded: 1.88

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Tottenham	Liverpool
Nottingham Forest	L 0–3 A	L 0–3 H
Brentford	W 2–0 H	L 2–3 A
Newcastle	D 2–2 A	W 3–2 A
Arsenal	L 1–4 A	W 1–0 H
Manchester United	D 2–2 H	L 1–2 H
Chelsea	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 A
Everton	W 3–0 A	W 2–1 H
Aston Villa	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 H
Leeds	W 2–1 A	D 3–3 A
Brighton	D 2–2 A	W 2–0 H
West Ham	W 3–0 A	W 2–0 A
Bournemouth	L 0–1 H	W 4–2 H
Manchester City	W 2–0 A	L 0–3 A
Burnley	W 3–0 H	W 1–0 A
Points	21 of 42 · 1.50 per game	25 of 42 · 1.79 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 Tottenham wins2 draws7 Liverpool wins

Goals per game1.70 – 3.00 Over 2.590% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

27 Apr 2025Liverpool5–1Tottenham
22 Dec 2024Tottenham3–6Liverpool
5 May 2024Liverpool4–2Tottenham
30 Sep 2023Tottenham2–1Liverpool
30 Apr 2023Liverpool4–3Tottenham
6 Nov 2022Tottenham1–2Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Tottenham	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.56	1.63
Conceded per game	1.31	1.50
Match goals	2.88	3.13	2.94
Over 1.5	88%	88%
Over 2.5	69%	63%	56%
Over 3.5	25%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	56%	59%
Clean sheets	31%	31%
Failed to score	19%	13%
Games	16	16

	Tottenham	Liverpool	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.40
Conceded per game	1.70	1.70
Match goals	3.10	3.10	2.94
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tottenham	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	6.27	5.00
Corners conceded	5.20	4.94
Match total	11.47	9.94	9.87
Over 8.5	73% 11/15	75% 12/16
Over 9.5	67% 10/15	44% 7/16
Over 10.5	60% 9/15	38% 6/16
Cards
Cards	2.56	1.88
Opponent cards	1.50	2.00
Match total	4.06	3.88	3.82
Over 3.5	63% 10/16	56% 9/16
Over 4.5	50% 8/16	38% 6/16

	Tottenham	Liverpool	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	4.90
Corners conceded	4.80	4.50
Match total	10.00	9.40	9.87
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.90	1.70
Opponent cards	1.90	2.10
Match total	4.80	3.80	3.82
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · John Brooks 91 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.32league 3.67

Red cards0.11league 0.11

Cards 5+47%league 39%

Fouls22.8league 22.1

Penalties0.22league 0.19

Home wins54%league 48%

Tottenham7 with this referee

Record4-2-1 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W23 Nov 24A · Manchester City4–02
W21 Sep 24H · Brentford3–13
D2 Apr 24A · West Ham1–14
W2 Mar 24H · Crystal Palace3–11
D14 Jan 24A · Manchester United2–21

Liverpool5 with this referee

Record2-1-2 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W20 Oct 24H · Chelsea2–14
L17 Mar 24A · Manchester United3–43
W27 Aug 23A · Newcastle2–13
D20 May 23H · Aston Villa1–13
L11 Mar 23A · Bournemouth0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.