Toulouse vs Angers – 23 Nov 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 23 · 16:15 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

Toulouse 10th · 16 pts · 12 played WLDDD

0–1Full time

Angers 13th · 13 pts · 12 played DWDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Toulouse were slight favourites.

Toulouse were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 19). Toulouse had 14.1 days of rest, Angers 14 and had to travel 457 km.

Away travel457 kmRest days14.1 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1

Toulouse57%

Draw24%

Angers19%

Expected goals 1.79 – 0.95

Toulouse57%

Draw24%

Angers19%

Expected goals 1.84 – 0.97

Toulouse56%

Draw25%

Angers19%

Expected goals 1.75 – 0.92

Toulouse49%

Draw26%

Angers25%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.06

Toulouse57%

Draw23%

Angers19%

Expected goals 1.88 – 1.00

Over 2.5 52% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Toulouse)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 56

Team strength

Toulouse

Angers

37 L90 StrengthIn forecast 19

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 19

45 AttackIn forecast 22

49 DefenceIn forecast 12

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Toulouse

Attack—

Defense risk—

Angers

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Toulouse

Angers

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 0.84

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.76

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

75% Scored inContext 58%

33% Clean sheetsContext 25%

12.25 ShotsContext 8.50

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

30% On target shareContext 33%

9.45 Shots in the boxContext 5.36

73% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 10%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.22

11.42 Shots allowedContext 14.08

3.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.17

4.00 BlocksContext 3.50

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.83

65% Save rateContext 74%

43% PossessionIn forecast 39%

345 PassesContext 375

279 Accurate passesContext 310

81% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.74

13.92 FoulsContext 11.25

11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 10.42

2.58 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.54 xGVia Att/Def 0.87

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.86

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

70% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.00 ShotsContext 9.10

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56

30% On target shareContext 35%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 5.40

73% Box shareContext 59%

12% ConversionContext 10%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.38

10.90 Shots allowedContext 13.10

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

3.44 BlocksContext 3.40

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

61% Save rateContext 71%

42% PossessionIn forecast 42%

339 PassesContext 402

273 Accurate passesContext 337

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.70

14.00 FoulsContext 11.20

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Toulouse

Rest14.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Angers

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel457 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Toulouse	Angers
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 9 Nov	14Ligue 1 2025-2026, 9 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	457 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Toulouse Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1G. Restes(G)

2R. Nicolaisen 4C. Cresswell 3M. McKenzie

24D. Methalie 45A. Vossah 23C. Cásseres 15A. Dønnum

10G. Gboho 9F. Magri

20Emersonn

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Angers Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12H. Koffi(G)

3J. Ekomié 21J. Lefort 4O. Camara 27L. Rao-Lisoa

10H. Abdelli 93H. Belkebla

7M. Sbaï 6L. Mouton 14Y. Belkhdim

11S. Chérif

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Toulouse Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Angers Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Toulouse+0.2 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Angers+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Toulouse · Home 1.50points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-1
Scored: 2.17
Conceded: 1.67

Angers · Away 0.33points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-4
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.83

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 9 this season

Opponent	Toulouse	Angers
Lorient	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 H
Rennes	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 H
Monaco	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Metz	W 4–0 H	D 1–1 A
Lyon	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 A
Auxerre	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 H
Lille	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 A
Paris Saint Germain	L 3–6 H	L 0–1 A
Stade Brestois 29	W 2–0 H	L 0–2 H
Points	11 of 27 · 1.22 per game	9 of 27 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Toulouse wins1 draws0 Angers wins

Goals per game2.50 – 0.75 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

2 Mar 2025Angers0–4Toulouse
20 Oct 2024Toulouse1–1Angers
12 Mar 2023Angers0–2Toulouse
16 Oct 2022Toulouse3–2Angers

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Toulouse	Angers	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.83
Conceded per game	1.33	1.25
Match goals	2.83	2.08	2.74
Over 1.5	67%	67%
Over 2.5	50%	17%	52%
Over 3.5	33%	17%
Both teams scored	50%	33%	52%
Clean sheets	33%	25%
Failed to score	25%	42%
Games	12	12

	Toulouse	Angers	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.90
Conceded per game	1.60	1.40
Match goals	3.10	2.30	2.74
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	20%	52%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Toulouse	Angers	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	4.09
Corners conceded	5.33	4.64
Match total	10.00	8.73	9.45
Over 8.5	67% 8/12	45% 5/11
Over 9.5	58% 7/12	36% 4/11
Over 10.5	58% 7/12	18% 2/11
Cards
Cards	2.67	1.42
Opponent cards	1.83	1.25
Match total	4.50	2.67	4.20
Over 3.5	83% 10/12	50% 6/12
Over 4.5	50% 6/12	0% 0/12

	Toulouse	Angers	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	4.20
Corners conceded	4.70	4.40
Match total	9.60	8.60	9.45
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.90	1.40
Opponent cards	1.90	1.40
Match total	4.80	2.80	4.20
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 56 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.36league 3.84

Red cards0.27league 0.33

Cards 5+29%league 38%

Fouls26.2league 24.2

Penalties0.32league 0.49

Home wins38%league 51%

Toulouse7 with this referee

Record2-1-4 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.4 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

L21 Sep 25A · Auxerre0–16
L20 Apr 25A · Reims0–11
D7 Mar 25H · Monaco1–11
L3 May 24H · Montpellier1–23
L5 Nov 23H · LE Havre1–22

Angers5 with this referee

Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 1

D31 Aug 25H · Rennes1–12
L5 Apr 25A · Paris Saint Germain0–13
L7 Dec 24H · Lyon0–30
W26 Oct 24H · Saint Etienne4–21
L29 Jan 23A · Stade Brestois 290–42

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.