Toulouse
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Toulouse56.6%fair odds 1.77
Draw24.3%fair odds 4.12
Angers19.1%fair odds 5.23
Expected goals1.79 – 0.95total 2.74
Likeliest score1–111.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Angers
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Toulouse ↓ · Angers → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Toulouse goals, columns Angers goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%8.65
- 1–011.0%9.08
- 2–010.4%9.64
- 2–19.8%10.18
- 0–07.1%14.16
- 3–06.2%16.17
- 3–15.9%17.07
- 0–15.6%17.99
- 1–25.2%19.23
- 2–24.7%21.49
Winning margin
14.9%
Toulouse by 3+
fair 6.69
17.6%
Toulouse by 2
fair 5.67
24.0%
Toulouse by 1
fair 4.16
24.3%
Draw
fair 4.12
12.5%
Angers by 1
fair 8.03
4.9%
Angers by 2
fair 20.25
1.7%
Angers by 3+
fair 57.30
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Toulouse goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Angers goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse win | 56.6% | 57.3% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 24.3% | 23.4% | +0.8 pp |
| Angers win | 19.1% | 19.2% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.5% | 54.9% | -3.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.6% | 54.1% | -2.6 pp |
| Expected goals Toulouse | 1.79 | 1.88 | -0.09 |
| Expected goals Angers | 0.95 | 1.00 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Toulouse win56.6%1.77
- Draw24.3%4.12
- Angers win19.1%5.23
- Double chance Toulouse or draw80.9%1.24
- Double chance Toulouse or Angers75.7%1.32
- Double chance Angers or draw43.4%2.30
- Draw no bet Toulouse74.7%1.34
- Draw no bet Angers25.3%3.96
Goals
- Over 0.592.9%1.08
- Over 1.576.4%1.31
- Over 2.551.5%1.94
- Over 3.529.4%3.40
- Over 4.514.3%7.02
- Under 1.523.6%4.23
- Under 2.548.5%2.06
- Under 3.570.6%1.42
Both teams to score
- Yes51.6%1.94
- No48.4%2.06
- Yes and over 2.540.0%2.50
- Toulouse win and yes24.9%4.02
- Draw and yes17.2%5.82
- Angers win and yes9.5%10.54
Team goals
- Toulouse over 0.583.3%1.20
- Toulouse over 1.553.4%1.87
- Toulouse over 2.526.6%3.75
- Angers over 0.561.2%1.63
- Angers over 1.524.5%4.09
- Angers over 2.57.1%14.12
- Toulouse clean sheet38.8%2.58
- Angers clean sheet16.7%5.98
- Toulouse win to nil31.7%3.15
- Angers win to nil9.6%10.36
Handicap
- Toulouse −1.532.6%3.07
- Toulouse −2.514.9%6.69
- Angers +1.567.4%1.48
- Angers +2.585.1%1.18
- Angers −1.56.7%14.96
- Toulouse +1.593.3%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored113
Favourite won54.9%
Avg chance given to result42.7%
1X2 Brier0.568
Over 2.5 called right56.6%
BTTS called right51.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 19 | 38.2% | 52.6% |
| 40–50% | 36 | 44.5% | 41.7% |
| 50–60% | 25 | 53.9% | 48.0% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 64.9% | 76.5% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 74.6% | 72.7% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 85.6% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 86 of 113 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6083 | 0.5932 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.7% | 41.0% |
| Favourite won | 47.7% | 47.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 86 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Lens 1–0 Strasbourg46·26·28
- ✓Nice 1–5 Marseille32·27·41
- ✓Lyon 2–3 Paris Saint Germain17·21·62
- ✗Metz 2–1 Nice30·27·43
- ✓Strasbourg 2–0 Lille38·26·36
- ✓Angers 2–0 Auxerre39·28·33
- ✗Lorient 1–1 Toulouse33·28·40
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 113 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.